Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a strong edge in trader consensus for AZ-02, reflecting the district's R+7 Cook Partisan Voting Index and incumbency advantages in a midterm cycle with statewide Republican voter registration gains. Recent tele-town halls drew over 13,000 constituents, and Crane's North Rim Restoration Act passed the House unanimously on March 28 to aid Grand Canyon recovery, bolstering local support. Democrat Jonathan Nez, named to the DCCC's Red to Blue program in February, has intensified criticisms of Crane's voting record via protests and social media this week, but lacks polls showing traction after prior losses. Filing deadline looms April 6 ahead of July 21 primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAZ-02 House Election Winner
AZ-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
65%
Democratic Party
36%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
65%
Democratic Party
$165 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a strong edge in trader consensus for AZ-02, reflecting the district's R+7 Cook Partisan Voting Index and incumbency advantages in a midterm cycle with statewide Republican voter registration gains. Recent tele-town halls drew over 13,000 constituents, and Crane's North Rim Restoration Act passed the House unanimously on March 28 to aid Grand Canyon recovery, bolstering local support. Democrat Jonathan Nez, named to the DCCC's Red to Blue program in February, has intensified criticisms of Crane's voting record via protests and social media this week, but lacks polls showing traction after prior losses. Filing deadline looms April 6 ahead of July 21 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$165End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a strong edge in trader consensus for AZ-02, reflecting the district's R+7 Cook Partisan Voting Index and incumbency advantages in a midterm cycle with statewide Republican voter registration gains. Recent tele-town halls drew over 13,000 constituents, and Crane's North Rim Restoration Act passed the House unanimously on March 28 to aid Grand Canyon recovery, bolstering local support. Democrat Jonathan Nez, named to the DCCC's Red to Blue program in February, has intensified criticisms of Crane's voting record via protests and social media this week, but lacks polls showing traction after prior losses. Filing deadline looms April 6 ahead of July 21 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$165End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a strong edge in trader consensus for AZ-02, reflecting the district's R+7 Cook Partisan Voting Index and incumbency advantages in a midterm cycle with statewide Republican voter registration gains. Recent tele-town halls drew over 13,000 constituents, and Crane's North Rim Restoration Act passed the House unanimously on March 28 to aid Grand Canyon recovery, bolstering local support. Democrat Jonathan Nez, named to the DCCC's Red to Blue program in February, has intensified criticisms of Crane's voting record via protests and social media this week, but lacks polls showing traction after prior losses. Filing deadline looms April 6 ahead of July 21 primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions