Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election — Discussion

nicoco89 · 2025-11-13T23:10:18.574Z

Discussion about Next French Presidential Election. Traders share insights and predictions on Polymarket.

Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Jordan Bardella 25%

Édouard Philippe 23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

$23,000,773 Vol.

Apr 30, 2027

Jordan Bardella

$593,542 Vol.

25%

Édouard Philippe

$371,184 Vol.

23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$211,536 Vol.

Marine Le Pen

$280,441 Vol.

Dominique de Villepin

$783,841 Vol.

Raphaël Glucksmann

$437,246 Vol.

Bruno Retailleau

$871,098 Vol.

François Hollande

$531,126 Vol.

Sarah Knafo

$932,073 Vol.

David Lisnard

$642,597 Vol.

Gabriel Attal

$815,314 Vol.

Sébastien Lecornu

$570,864 Vol.

Gérald Darmanin

$301,993 Vol.

Jean Castex

$439,307 Vol.

Éric Zemmour

$327,593 Vol.

Juan Branco

$246,632 Vol.

Valérie Pécresse

$871,895 Vol.

Bernard Cazeneuve

$247,116 Vol.

François Ruffin

$276,737 Vol.

Marine Tondelier

$332,114 Vol.

<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,105,427 Vol.

<1%

Laurent Wauquiez

$281,082 Vol.

<1%

Fabien Roussel

$809,293 Vol.

<1%

François Asselineau

$1,043,626 Vol.

<1%

Élisabeth Borne

$908,080 Vol.

<1%

Manuel Bompard

$684,882 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Bertrand

$417,713 Vol.

<1%

Olivier Faure

$633,318 Vol.

<1%

Ségolène Royal

$817,176 Vol.

<1%

Clémentine Autain

$1,223,789 Vol.

<1%

Michel Barnier

$737,341 Vol.

<1%

François Bayrou

$881,007 Vol.

<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$713,156 Vol.

<1%

Clémence Guetté

$988,239 Vol.

<1%

Carole Delga

$674,324 Vol.

<1%

Mathilde Panot

$999,486 Vol.

<1%

Jordan Bardella 25%

Édouard Philippe 23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

$23,000,773 Vol.

Apr 30, 2027

Jordan Bardella

$593,542 Vol.

25%

Édouard Philippe

$371,184 Vol.

23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$211,536 Vol.

Marine Le Pen

$280,441 Vol.

Dominique de Villepin

$783,841 Vol.

Raphaël Glucksmann

$437,246 Vol.

Bruno Retailleau

$871,098 Vol.

François Hollande

$531,126 Vol.

Sarah Knafo

$932,073 Vol.

David Lisnard

$642,597 Vol.

Gabriel Attal

$815,314 Vol.

Sébastien Lecornu

$570,864 Vol.

Gérald Darmanin

$301,993 Vol.

Jean Castex

$439,307 Vol.

Éric Zemmour

$327,593 Vol.

Juan Branco

$246,632 Vol.

Valérie Pécresse

$871,895 Vol.

Bernard Cazeneuve

$247,116 Vol.

François Ruffin

$276,737 Vol.

Marine Tondelier

$332,114 Vol.

<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,105,427 Vol.

<1%

Laurent Wauquiez

$281,082 Vol.

<1%

Fabien Roussel

$809,293 Vol.

<1%

François Asselineau

$1,043,626 Vol.

<1%

Élisabeth Borne

$908,080 Vol.

<1%

Manuel Bompard

$684,882 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Bertrand

$417,713 Vol.

<1%

Olivier Faure

$633,318 Vol.

<1%

Ségolène Royal

$817,176 Vol.

<1%

Clémentine Autain

$1,223,789 Vol.

<1%

Michel Barnier

$737,341 Vol.

<1%

François Bayrou

$881,007 Vol.

<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$713,156 Vol.

<1%

Clémence Guetté

$988,239 Vol.

<1%

Carole Delga

$674,324 Vol.

<1%

Mathilde Panot

$999,486 Vol.

<1%

Recent Elabe/BFMTV polling from March 25-27 underscores trader consensus on a tight 2027 French presidential race, with Jordan Bardella leading first-round intentions at 35-38% amid National Rally gains from mid-March municipal elections, while Édouard Philippe surges to 20-25% by consolidating centrist and some right-wing support after his Le Havre mayoral reelection. Philippe narrowly prevails in simulated Bardella runoffs (51.5-48.5%), reflecting his broader second-round appeal against far-right "glass ceiling" dynamics. Left fragmentation caps Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 10-13% and others lower, keeping the field open without Emmanuel Macron's reelection eligibility. Separation could arise from RN primary outcomes—potentially favoring Bardella over legally embattled Marine Le Pen—candidacy announcements, or center-right alliances ahead of April 2027 voting.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 30, 2026, 2:01 AM UTC

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 25%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $23 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Jordan Bardella" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

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Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $23 million traded on “Next French Presidential Election,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 25¢ for "Jordan Bardella" in the "Next French Presidential Election" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 25% chance that "Jordan Bardella" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 25¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 75¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Next French Presidential Election" market is a long-term prediction with a resolution date of Apr 30, 2027 — that's roughly over 1 year away. Long-term markets on Polymarket often see their odds shift significantly as events unfold, making them useful for tracking evolving sentiment. You can trade at any time or bookmark this page to follow the odds over the months and years ahead.

The "Next French Presidential Election" market has an active community of 347 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

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Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election

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Rules

Market Context

Comments (347)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

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