The United States and Israel have led a sustained air campaign against Iran since surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile production sites, IRGC compounds, and naval assets like those on Kharg Island, with over 10,000 strikes degrading Iranian capabilities amid retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities, U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia, and Gulf targets. Recent developments include weekend strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces, Houthi ballistic missile barrages on Israel, and Iranian accusations of impending U.S. ground operations as CENTCOM deploys additional troops; Iran is reviewing a U.S.-mediated 15-point proposal via Pakistan to halt hostilities. The IDF describes its Iran strike campaign as nearly complete, with no confirmed military actions against Iran by other countries like the UK or Saudi Arabia as of March 30. Traders eye potential final escalations, including ground maneuvers, before the March 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$10,839,109 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi Arabia
4%
UAE
3%
Qatar
2%
Bahrain
2%
Kuwait
1%
Jordan
1%
UK
1%
Any E.U. Country
1%
Turkey
1%
France
1%
Oman
1%
Germany
<1%
Canada
<1%
$10,839,109 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$2,208,406 Vol.
4%
UAE
$2,852,108 Vol.
3%
Qatar
$946,268 Vol.
2%
Bahrain
$392,924 Vol.
2%
Kuwait
$211,656 Vol.
1%
Jordan
$189,690 Vol.
1%
UK
$948,392 Vol.
1%
Any E.U. Country
$473,066 Vol.
1%
Turkey
$481,797 Vol.
1%
France
$750,279 Vol.
1%
Oman
$132,073 Vol.
1%
Germany
$912,746 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$339,708 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel have led a sustained air campaign against Iran since surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile production sites, IRGC compounds, and naval assets like those on Kharg Island, with over 10,000 strikes degrading Iranian capabilities amid retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities, U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia, and Gulf targets. Recent developments include weekend strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces, Houthi ballistic missile barrages on Israel, and Iranian accusations of impending U.S. ground operations as CENTCOM deploys additional troops; Iran is reviewing a U.S.-mediated 15-point proposal via Pakistan to halt hostilities. The IDF describes its Iran strike campaign as nearly complete, with no confirmed military actions against Iran by other countries like the UK or Saudi Arabia as of March 30. Traders eye potential final escalations, including ground maneuvers, before the March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$10,839,109End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel have led a sustained air campaign against Iran since surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile production sites, IRGC compounds, and naval assets like those on Kharg Island, with over 10,000 strikes degrading Iranian capabilities amid retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities, U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia, and Gulf targets. Recent developments include weekend strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces, Houthi ballistic missile barrages on Israel, and Iranian accusations of impending U.S. ground operations as CENTCOM deploys additional troops; Iran is reviewing a U.S.-mediated 15-point proposal via Pakistan to halt hostilities. The IDF describes its Iran strike campaign as nearly complete, with no confirmed military actions against Iran by other countries like the UK or Saudi Arabia as of March 30. Traders eye potential final escalations, including ground maneuvers, before the March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,839,109End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel have led a sustained air campaign against Iran since surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile production sites, IRGC compounds, and naval assets like those on Kharg Island, with over 10,000 strikes degrading Iranian capabilities amid retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities, U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia, and Gulf targets. Recent developments include weekend strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces, Houthi ballistic missile barrages on Israel, and Iranian accusations of impending U.S. ground operations as CENTCOM deploys additional troops; Iran is reviewing a U.S.-mediated 15-point proposal via Pakistan to halt hostilities. The IDF describes its Iran strike campaign as nearly complete, with no confirmed military actions against Iran by other countries like the UK or Saudi Arabia as of March 30. Traders eye potential final escalations, including ground maneuvers, before the March 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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