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Politics·Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Market icon
Politics·Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Karen Bass 43%

Nithya Raman 37%

Spencer Pratt 12%

Rae Huang 3.3%

Polymarket

$770,928 Vol.

Karen Bass 43%

Nithya Raman 37%

Spencer Pratt 12%

Rae Huang 3.3%

Polymarket

$770,928 Vol.

Market icon

Karen Bass

$21,419 Vol.

43%

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Nithya Raman

$3,697 Vol.

37%

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Spencer Pratt

$81,241 Vol.

12%

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Rae Huang

$34,074 Vol.

3%

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Gina Viola

$75,510 Vol.

2%

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Rick Caruso

$423,752 Vol.

1%

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Adam Miller

$81,434 Vol.

<1%

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Asaad Alnajjar

$27,775 Vol.

<1%

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Austin Beutner

$4,969 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Monica Rodriguez

$2,533 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Lindsey Horvath

$14,524 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a trader consensus edge at 43.5% implied probability in the June 2 Los Angeles mayoral primary, where top-two finishers advance to a November runoff, but Nithya Raman trails closely at 36.5% amid high undecided voters shown in recent LA Times/UC Berkeley IGS polling (Bass 25%, Raman 17%, 26% undecided). Bass's lead persists due to incumbency advantages and historical voter reluctance to oust sitting mayors, yet 56% unfavorable views—driven by criticism of her Palisades fire response and stalled progress on homelessness and infrastructure—keep the race competitive. Raman's late February entry as a progressive City Councilmember challenger has built momentum, while Spencer Pratt's 11.5% reflects celebrity visibility from fire impacts but limited broader appeal. Upcoming debates and endorsements could consolidate support and create separation before the primary.

Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a trader consensus edge at 43.5% implied probability in the June 2 Los Angeles mayoral primary, where top-two finishers advance to a November runoff, but Nithya Raman trails closely at 36.5% amid high undecided voters shown in recent LA Times/UC Berkeley IGS polling (Bass 25%, Raman 17%, 26% undecided). Bass's lead persists due to incumbency advantages and historical voter reluctance to oust sitting mayors, yet 56% unfavorable views—driven by criticism of her Palisades fire response and stalled progress on homelessness and infrastructure—keep the race competitive. Raman's late February entry as a progressive City Councilmember challenger has built momentum, while Spencer Pratt's 11.5% reflects celebrity visibility from fire impacts but limited broader appeal. Upcoming debates and endorsements could consolidate support and create separation before the primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a trader consensus edge at 43.5% implied probability in the June 2 Los Angeles mayoral primary, where top-two finishers advance to a November runoff, but Nithya Raman trails closely at 36.5% amid high undecided voters shown in recent LA Times/UC Berkeley IGS polling (Bass 25%, Raman 17%, 26% undecided). Bass's lead persists due to incumbency advantages and historical voter reluctance to oust sitting mayors, yet 56% unfavorable views—driven by criticism of her Palisades fire response and stalled progress on homelessness and infrastructure—keep the race competitive. Raman's late February entry as a progressive City Councilmember challenger has built momentum, while Spencer Pratt's 11.5% reflects celebrity visibility from fire impacts but limited broader appeal. Upcoming debates and endorsements could consolidate support and create separation before the primary.

Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a trader consensus edge at 43.5% implied probability in the June 2 Los Angeles mayoral primary, where top-two finishers advance to a November runoff, but Nithya Raman trails closely at 36.5% amid high undecided voters shown in recent LA Times/UC Berkeley IGS polling (Bass 25%, Raman 17%, 26% undecided). Bass's lead persists due to incumbency advantages and historical voter reluctance to oust sitting mayors, yet 56% unfavorable views—driven by criticism of her Palisades fire response and stalled progress on homelessness and infrastructure—keep the race competitive. Raman's late February entry as a progressive City Councilmember challenger has built momentum, while Spencer Pratt's 11.5% reflects celebrity visibility from fire impacts but limited broader appeal. Upcoming debates and endorsements could consolidate support and create separation before the primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Karen Bass" at 43%, followed by "Nithya Raman" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" has generated $770.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Los Angeles Mayoral Election," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is "Karen Bass" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nithya Raman" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.