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Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Édouard Philippe 28%

Jordan Bardella 21%

Marine Le Pen 9%

Dominique de Villepin 5.5%

Polymarket

$31,378,112 Vol.

Édouard Philippe 28%

Jordan Bardella 21%

Marine Le Pen 9%

Dominique de Villepin 5.5%

Polymarket

$31,378,112 Vol.

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Édouard Philippe

$447,212 Vol.

28%

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Jordan Bardella

$666,899 Vol.

21%

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Marine Le Pen

$333,435 Vol.

9%

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Dominique de Villepin

$863,225 Vol.

6%

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$247,530 Vol.

6%

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David Lisnard

$760,707 Vol.

5%

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Raphaël Glucksmann

$504,293 Vol.

3%

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François Hollande

$592,743 Vol.

3%

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Bruno Retailleau

$938,144 Vol.

3%

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Sarah Knafo

$1,010,769 Vol.

3%

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Gabriel Attal

$866,785 Vol.

2%

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Gérald Darmanin

$339,117 Vol.

1%

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Éric Zemmour

$364,177 Vol.

1%

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Jean Castex

$478,795 Vol.

1%

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Sébastien Lecornu

$640,829 Vol.

1%

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François Ruffin

$330,864 Vol.

1%

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Clémentine Autain

$1,855,566 Vol.

1%

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Yaël Braun-Pivet

$1,347,455 Vol.

1%

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Clémence Guetté

$1,661,990 Vol.

1%

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Laurent Wauquiez

$379,913 Vol.

1%

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François Asselineau

$1,703,220 Vol.

1%

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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,356,890 Vol.

1%

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Élisabeth Borne

$1,582,763 Vol.

1%

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Juan Branco

$291,529 Vol.

1%

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Marine Tondelier

$414,538 Vol.

1%

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Michel Barnier

$1,173,230 Vol.

1%

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François Bayrou

$1,622,584 Vol.

1%

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Valérie Pécresse

$1,178,868 Vol.

<1%

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Manuel Bompard

$1,094,181 Vol.

<1%

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Xavier Bertrand

$901,128 Vol.

<1%

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Olivier Faure

$959,110 Vol.

<1%

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Ségolène Royal

$1,132,101 Vol.

<1%

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Bernard Cazeneuve

$339,445 Vol.

<1%

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Fabien Roussel

$1,150,990 Vol.

<1%

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Mathilde Panot

$1,106,968 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Carole Delga

$743,170 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polls following France's March 2026 municipal elections show Jordan Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at 34-38% for the April 2027 presidential race, with Édouard Philippe close behind at 18-25.5%, reflecting National Rally's gains in mid-sized towns but limits in major cities, while Philippe solidified his center-right credentials via reelection as Le Havre mayor. Second-round matchups remain tight, with Philippe edging Bardella 51-52% to 48% in Elabe and Odoxa surveys, driving trader consensus to price him highest amid a fragmented field and pending party primaries, such as Les Républicains' April 18 decision. Separation could arise from Marine Le Pen's summer appeal verdict on her candidacy ban, leftist alliances, or economic shifts.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$31,378,112
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polls following France's March 2026 municipal elections show Jordan Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at 34-38% for the April 2027 presidential race, with Édouard Philippe close behind at 18-25.5%, reflecting National Rally's gains in mid-sized towns but limits in major cities, while Philippe solidified his center-right credentials via reelection as Le Havre mayor. Second-round matchups remain tight, with Philippe edging Bardella 51-52% to 48% in Elabe and Odoxa surveys, driving trader consensus to price him highest amid a fragmented field and pending party primaries, such as Les Républicains' April 18 decision. Separation could arise from Marine Le Pen's summer appeal verdict on her candidacy ban, leftist alliances, or economic shifts.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$31,378,112
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 28%, followed by "Jordan Bardella" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $31.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Édouard Philippe" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.