Trader consensus prices Michael Minogue and Brian Shortsleeve nearly even in the Massachusetts Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the state party convention later this month, where candidates need 15% delegate support for September 1 ballot access. Minogue's early March internal poll gave him a 29%-16% edge over Shortsleeve among modeled primary voters and attendees, boosted by his self-funding and TV ads, but conflicting surveys like Suffolk and UNH favor Shortsleeve, while YouGov boosts Kennealy. Recent delegate access disputes accused against Minogue and Shortsleeve, Shortsleeve's March 27 running mate announcement with New Bedford councilor Shawn Oliver, and forum appearances have kept the field competitive, with convention outcomes likely to create separation via endorsements or qualification hurdles.