Recent municipal elections on March 15 and 23 highlighted the tight 2027 presidential race, with Édouard Philippe's strong reelection as Le Havre mayor—conditioned on his national bid—elevating him as the center-right challenger to National Rally leader Jordan Bardella, whose party secured symbolic wins in Nice and Carcassonne but fell short of broader breakthroughs amid low turnout. Polls vary, with Bardella leading first-round intentions at 25-36% in recent surveys like Elabe (March 25-27) and Harris (March 22), while Philippe surges to 38% in the latest, reflecting fragmented left (Mélenchon at 8-13%) and right fields, including Marine Le Pen's diminished prospects due to her ongoing embezzlement appeal. Trader consensus prices a Bardella-Philippe runoff as likely; separation could stem from center-right consolidation behind Philippe, left-wing coalescence, or scandal-driven shifts before April 2027 voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNext French Presidential Election
Next French Presidential Election
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 23%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$22,987,951 Vol.
$22,987,951 Vol.
Jordan Bardella
25%
Édouard Philippe
23%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
9%
Marine Le Pen
8%
Dominique de Villepin
5%
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
François Hollande
4%
Bruno Retailleau
3%
Sarah Knafo
3%
David Lisnard
3%
Gabriel Attal
3%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Gérald Darmanin
1%
Jean Castex
1%
Éric Zemmour
1%
Juan Branco
1%
Valérie Pécresse
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Manuel Bompard
<1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Olivier Faure
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
François Bayrou
<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 23%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$22,987,951 Vol.
$22,987,951 Vol.
Jordan Bardella
25%
Édouard Philippe
23%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
9%
Marine Le Pen
8%
Dominique de Villepin
5%
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
François Hollande
4%
Bruno Retailleau
3%
Sarah Knafo
3%
David Lisnard
3%
Gabriel Attal
3%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Gérald Darmanin
1%
Jean Castex
1%
Éric Zemmour
1%
Juan Branco
1%
Valérie Pécresse
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Manuel Bompard
<1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Olivier Faure
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
François Bayrou
<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent municipal elections on March 15 and 23 highlighted the tight 2027 presidential race, with Édouard Philippe's strong reelection as Le Havre mayor—conditioned on his national bid—elevating him as the center-right challenger to National Rally leader Jordan Bardella, whose party secured symbolic wins in Nice and Carcassonne but fell short of broader breakthroughs amid low turnout. Polls vary, with Bardella leading first-round intentions at 25-36% in recent surveys like Elabe (March 25-27) and Harris (March 22), while Philippe surges to 38% in the latest, reflecting fragmented left (Mélenchon at 8-13%) and right fields, including Marine Le Pen's diminished prospects due to her ongoing embezzlement appeal. Trader consensus prices a Bardella-Philippe runoff as likely; separation could stem from center-right consolidation behind Philippe, left-wing coalescence, or scandal-driven shifts before April 2027 voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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