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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$489,271,323 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$489,271,323 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,681,255 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$9,740,786 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,509,643 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,570,736 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,237,668 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,677,114 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,625,416 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,729,289 Vol.

2%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,432,028 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,540,266 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,999,378 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$16,035,463 Vol.

1%

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JB Pritzker

$10,477,713 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,882,775 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,821,894 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,444,931 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,243,537 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,896,959 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,402,590 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,590,338 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,897,338 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,237,878 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,728,495 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$6,210,320 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,505,874 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,355,767 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,897,487 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,111,282 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,763,686 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,498,976 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,722,049 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,731,754 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,722,710 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,796,859 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,488,059 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$30,063,618 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.6% implied probability on Polymarket, neck-and-neck with California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3%, reflecting early positioning amid high uncertainty two years out. Vance's lead stems from his incumbency advantage as Trump's VP and a dominant 53% in the recent CPAC 2026 straw poll, but his approval ratings have plunged in the past week over perceived tensions with Trump on Iran policy escalation, allowing Newsom to close the gap via strong Democratic fundraising and favorable hypothetical matchup polls. Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% with rising GOP buzz as an alternative. The fragmented field underscores a wide-open race, with 2026 midterms, Trump's endorsement signals, and economic performance poised to create separation ahead of primaries.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$489,271,323
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.6% implied probability on Polymarket, neck-and-neck with California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3%, reflecting early positioning amid high uncertainty two years out. Vance's lead stems from his incumbency advantage as Trump's VP and a dominant 53% in the recent CPAC 2026 straw poll, but his approval ratings have plunged in the past week over perceived tensions with Trump on Iran policy escalation, allowing Newsom to close the gap via strong Democratic fundraising and favorable hypothetical matchup polls. Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% with rising GOP buzz as an alternative. The fragmented field underscores a wide-open race, with 2026 midterms, Trump's endorsement signals, and economic performance poised to create separation ahead of primaries.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$489,271,323
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $489.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.