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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.1%

Jon Ossoff 5.4%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$956,771,680 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.1%

Jon Ossoff 5.4%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$956,771,680 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$17,379,230 Vol.

25%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,442,538 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$6,230,015 Vol.

5%

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Kamala Harris

$8,861,923 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,009,927 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,623,932 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$6,602,067 Vol.

3%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,265,707 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$4,746,879 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$10,757,898 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,560,943 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,843,236 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,317,922 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,713,351 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,672,281 Vol.

2%

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Michelle Obama

$21,967,564 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$14,183,996 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,399,277 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,481,886 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,238,115 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,945,546 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,872,278 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,114,013 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,209,237 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,772,270 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,479,083 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,328,204 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,545,969 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,439,670 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,885,638 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,857,441 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,514,245 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,771,010 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,695,108 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,694,094 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$25,549,414 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,265,173 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,820,410 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,398,640 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,715,169 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,714,897 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$23,195,040 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$39,403,608 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,298,498 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 24.6% implied probability, driven by March 2026 polls showing him topping early primary preferences nationally and in California, ahead of rivals like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. His recent Politico interview on March 24 highlighted national ambitions amid Democratic soul-searching post-2024 election loss, bolstering his profile through fundraising and media contrasts with the Trump administration. The field remains wide open, with Ocasio-Cortez differentiating via progressive grassroots energy, Sen. Jon Ossoff via Georgia swing-state appeal, and others like Gov. Josh Shapiro through moderate executive records. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes, key endorsements, and fundraising surges before primaries begin in 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$956,771,680
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 24.6% implied probability, driven by March 2026 polls showing him topping early primary preferences nationally and in California, ahead of rivals like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. His recent Politico interview on March 24 highlighted national ambitions amid Democratic soul-searching post-2024 election loss, bolstering his profile through fundraising and media contrasts with the Trump administration. The field remains wide open, with Ocasio-Cortez differentiating via progressive grassroots energy, Sen. Jon Ossoff via Georgia swing-state appeal, and others like Gov. Josh Shapiro through moderate executive records. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes, key endorsements, and fundraising surges before primaries begin in 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$956,771,680
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $956.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.