Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$489,580,532 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$489,580,532 Vol.

Market icon

JD Vance

$9,682,843 Vol.

18%

Market icon

Gavin Newsom

$9,847,333 Vol.

17%

Market icon

Marco Rubio

$5,512,746 Vol.

10%

Market icon

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,570,995 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Jon Ossoff

$3,238,305 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Kamala Harris

$6,677,476 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Tucker Carlson

$9,627,045 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Donald Trump

$6,730,062 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Josh Shapiro

$5,432,468 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Pete Buttigieg

$3,540,704 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Ron DeSantis

$6,000,484 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Andy Beshear

$16,036,210 Vol.

1%

Market icon

JB Pritzker

$10,477,937 Vol.

1%

Market icon

James Talarico

$3,882,920 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,822,707 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Michelle Obama

$13,445,113 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Elon Musk

$22,244,450 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Gretchen Whitmer

$7,908,594 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Jamie Dimon

$7,403,878 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Greg Abbott

$31,591,255 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Wes Moore

$5,898,481 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ivanka Trump

$4,239,237 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$8,729,767 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ro Khanna

$6,326,493 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Thomas Massie

$3,515,662 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Nikki Haley

$21,361,772 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tim Walz

$38,913,496 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Glenn Youngkin

$20,117,148 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Stephen Smith

$28,769,726 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$27,500,905 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,723,636 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Zohran Mamdani

$16,733,266 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Eric Trump

$5,724,089 Vol.

1%

Market icon

LeBron James

$43,800,223 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Pete Hegseth

$2,488,476 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kim Kardashian

$30,065,956 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance's recent announcement of a new memoir on his Catholic conversion and his headline appearance at a major conservative donor summit have solidified his position as the trader-favored Republican frontrunner for 2028, reinforced by CPAC and JL Partners straw polls showing him dominating GOP preferences at 53%. California Governor Gavin Newsom's commanding lead over Kamala Harris in a March California primary poll and strong New Hampshire showings have elevated him among Democrats in an open field post-2024. With top probabilities tightly clustered below 20%, markets reflect uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, which could reshape primaries through incumbency advantages, Trump endorsements, or economic shifts; scandals or policy successes might create separation.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$489,580,532
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance's recent announcement of a new memoir on his Catholic conversion and his headline appearance at a major conservative donor summit have solidified his position as the trader-favored Republican frontrunner for 2028, reinforced by CPAC and JL Partners straw polls showing him dominating GOP preferences at 53%. California Governor Gavin Newsom's commanding lead over Kamala Harris in a March California primary poll and strong New Hampshire showings have elevated him among Democrats in an open field post-2024. With top probabilities tightly clustered below 20%, markets reflect uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, which could reshape primaries through incumbency advantages, Trump endorsements, or economic shifts; scandals or policy successes might create separation.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$489,580,532
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Related

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $489.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.