Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election — Discussion

nicoco89 · 2025-11-13T23:10:18.574Z

Discussion about Next French Presidential Election. Traders share insights and predictions on Polymarket.

Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Jordan Bardella 25%

Édouard Philippe 23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

$22,937,156 Vol.

Apr 30, 2027

Jordan Bardella

$590,652 Vol.

25%

Édouard Philippe

$371,010 Vol.

23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$211,536 Vol.

Marine Le Pen

$280,441 Vol.

Dominique de Villepin

$783,499 Vol.

Raphaël Glucksmann

$436,696 Vol.

Sarah Knafo

$931,304 Vol.

Bruno Retailleau

$870,172 Vol.

François Hollande

$527,657 Vol.

David Lisnard

$642,046 Vol.

Gabriel Attal

$814,914 Vol.

Sébastien Lecornu

$570,144 Vol.

Gérald Darmanin

$301,833 Vol.

Jean Castex

$439,307 Vol.

Éric Zemmour

$327,593 Vol.

Juan Branco

$246,632 Vol.

Valérie Pécresse

$871,895 Vol.

Bernard Cazeneuve

$247,116 Vol.

François Ruffin

$276,737 Vol.

Marine Tondelier

$332,114 Vol.

<1%

Laurent Wauquiez

$281,082 Vol.

<1%

Fabien Roussel

$809,293 Vol.

<1%

François Asselineau

$1,037,334 Vol.

<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,102,371 Vol.

<1%

Élisabeth Borne

$899,100 Vol.

<1%

Manuel Bompard

$684,882 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Bertrand

$417,649 Vol.

<1%

Olivier Faure

$633,318 Vol.

<1%

Ségolène Royal

$817,124 Vol.

<1%

Clémentine Autain

$1,213,412 Vol.

<1%

Michel Barnier

$737,325 Vol.

<1%

François Bayrou

$872,775 Vol.

<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$705,258 Vol.

<1%

Clémence Guetté

$981,087 Vol.

<1%

Carole Delga

$674,324 Vol.

<1%

Mathilde Panot

$998,980 Vol.

<1%

Jordan Bardella 25%

Édouard Philippe 23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

$22,937,156 Vol.

Apr 30, 2027

Jordan Bardella

$590,652 Vol.

25%

Édouard Philippe

$371,010 Vol.

23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$211,536 Vol.

Marine Le Pen

$280,441 Vol.

Dominique de Villepin

$783,499 Vol.

Raphaël Glucksmann

$436,696 Vol.

Sarah Knafo

$931,304 Vol.

Bruno Retailleau

$870,172 Vol.

François Hollande

$527,657 Vol.

David Lisnard

$642,046 Vol.

Gabriel Attal

$814,914 Vol.

Sébastien Lecornu

$570,144 Vol.

Gérald Darmanin

$301,833 Vol.

Jean Castex

$439,307 Vol.

Éric Zemmour

$327,593 Vol.

Juan Branco

$246,632 Vol.

Valérie Pécresse

$871,895 Vol.

Bernard Cazeneuve

$247,116 Vol.

François Ruffin

$276,737 Vol.

Marine Tondelier

$332,114 Vol.

<1%

Laurent Wauquiez

$281,082 Vol.

<1%

Fabien Roussel

$809,293 Vol.

<1%

François Asselineau

$1,037,334 Vol.

<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,102,371 Vol.

<1%

Élisabeth Borne

$899,100 Vol.

<1%

Manuel Bompard

$684,882 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Bertrand

$417,649 Vol.

<1%

Olivier Faure

$633,318 Vol.

<1%

Ségolène Royal

$817,124 Vol.

<1%

Clémentine Autain

$1,213,412 Vol.

<1%

Michel Barnier

$737,325 Vol.

<1%

François Bayrou

$872,775 Vol.

<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$705,258 Vol.

<1%

Clémence Guetté

$981,087 Vol.

<1%

Carole Delga

$674,324 Vol.

<1%

Mathilde Panot

$998,980 Vol.

<1%

Recent municipal elections ending March 22 delivered mixed signals for the 2027 French presidential race, with National Rally (RN) president Jordan Bardella claiming grassroots victories in smaller towns but falling short in major cities like Paris and Marseille, tempering far-right momentum. Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe solidified his center-right bid through a strong reelection as Le Havre mayor, positioning him as Macron's potential successor. Polls like Elabe's March 25-27 survey show Bardella leading first-round voting at 38% to Philippe's 25.5%, yet Philippe prevails 51.5-48.5 in a runoff—mirroring trader consensus on Polymarket where the duo trades neck-and-neck amid left fragmentation and upcoming party primaries that could consolidate blocs before April 2027 balloting.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 30, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC

French election called by June 30, 2026?

Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election?

100%

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 25%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $22.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Jordan Bardella" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Next French Presidential Election." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $22.9 million traded on “Next French Presidential Election,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Next French Presidential Election," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 25¢ for "Jordan Bardella" in the "Next French Presidential Election" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 25% chance that "Jordan Bardella" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 25¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 75¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Next French Presidential Election" market is a long-term prediction with a resolution date of Apr 30, 2027 — that's roughly over 1 year away. Long-term markets on Polymarket often see their odds shift significantly as events unfold, making them useful for tracking evolving sentiment. You can trade at any time or bookmark this page to follow the odds over the months and years ahead.

The "Next French Presidential Election" market has an active community of 346 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Next French Presidential Election." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Related

Comments (346)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Next French Presidential Election" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Next French Presidential Election" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Next French Presidential Election"?

What are the current odds for "Next French Presidential Election"?

How will "Next French Presidential Election" be resolved?

Can I follow "Next French Presidential Election" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Next French Presidential Election" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Next French Presidential Election"?

What does a price of 25¢ for "Jordan Bardella" mean?

When does the "Next French Presidential Election" market close?

What are traders saying about "Next French Presidential Election"?

What is Polymarket?