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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$503,520,024 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$503,520,024 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$7,924,214 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,775,859 Vol.

22%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,326,856 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,810,114 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,478,900 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,665,023 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,841,971 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,003,697 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,150,698 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,448,912 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,890,655 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,881,225 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,516,650 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,609,802 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,083,846 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,065,961 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,438,682 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,113,692 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,243,627 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,250,755 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,106,485 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,366,554 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,628,023 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,576,087 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,977,431 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,959,301 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,952,895 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,532,570 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,309,137 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,516,444 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,021,760 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,008,508 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,582,965 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$11,242,530 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$33,220,553 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Vice President J.D. Vance trails Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in trader consensus for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 36.5% implied probability to RFK Jr.'s 49%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio close behind at 21.6%, amid an open primary field following President Trump's two-term limit. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his prominent HHS Secretary role and Make America Healthy Again initiative's appeal to GOP base voters prioritizing health policy reform over establishment figures, despite his prior independent run and 2025 denials of 2028 ambitions. Vance's odds hit a recent low in late March amid speculation over his early campaign plotting and criticisms from Democrats like Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. Rubio's surge earlier in March stems from strong foreign policy visibility and Senate relationships, positioning him as a viable establishment-MAGA bridge. November 2026 midterms will test these dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$503,520,024
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Vice President J.D. Vance trails Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in trader consensus for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 36.5% implied probability to RFK Jr.'s 49%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio close behind at 21.6%, amid an open primary field following President Trump's two-term limit. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his prominent HHS Secretary role and Make America Healthy Again initiative's appeal to GOP base voters prioritizing health policy reform over establishment figures, despite his prior independent run and 2025 denials of 2028 ambitions. Vance's odds hit a recent low in late March amid speculation over his early campaign plotting and criticisms from Democrats like Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. Rubio's surge earlier in March stems from strong foreign policy visibility and Senate relationships, positioning him as a viable establishment-MAGA bridge. November 2026 midterms will test these dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$503,520,024
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $503.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.