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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 5.5%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$950,143,633 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 5.5%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$950,143,633 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$17,082,488 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,264,133 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$6,075,831 Vol.

5%

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Kamala Harris

$8,830,834 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,987,723 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,594,080 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$6,493,713 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$4,351,760 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,926,322 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$10,479,280 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,381,288 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,655,838 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,663,190 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,539,218 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,303,077 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$21,711,829 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$14,013,627 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,371,149 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,467,159 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,230,871 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,925,557 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,847,662 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,084,270 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,167,369 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,719,071 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,446,898 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,473,872 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$32,940,848 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,835,742 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,638,634 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,786,409 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,373,453 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$24,914,590 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,730,517 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,637,460 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$25,423,163 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,103,218 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,709,477 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,071,833 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,608,509 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,630,897 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,607,803 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$39,156,429 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$31,889,159 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 24.2% implied probability on Polymarket, driven by recent Emerson College and LA Times/UC Berkeley polls showing him topping early primary fields nationally at 20% and dominating in-state matchups against Kamala Harris. His executive experience, national fundraising edge, and high-visibility policy clashes with the Trump administration position him ahead in the wide-open post-2024 field. Progressive firebrand Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows at 8%, fueled by youth appeal and social media buzz, while Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff's 5.5% reflects battleground credibility. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm performances for governors and senators, fundraising supremacy, key endorsements, and shifts in Trump's approval ratings below 40%, with no candidate yet dominating polling averages.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$950,143,633
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 24.2% implied probability on Polymarket, driven by recent Emerson College and LA Times/UC Berkeley polls showing him topping early primary fields nationally at 20% and dominating in-state matchups against Kamala Harris. His executive experience, national fundraising edge, and high-visibility policy clashes with the Trump administration position him ahead in the wide-open post-2024 field. Progressive firebrand Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows at 8%, fueled by youth appeal and social media buzz, while Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff's 5.5% reflects battleground credibility. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm performances for governors and senators, fundraising supremacy, key endorsements, and shifts in Trump's approval ratings below 40%, with no candidate yet dominating polling averages.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$950,143,633
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $950.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.