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Elections·Trump

Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

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Elections·Trump

Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

Scott Wiener 68%

Saikat Chakrabarti 26.8%

Connie Chan 5.9%

Darren Helton <1%

Polymarket

$337,773 Vol.

Scott Wiener 68%

Saikat Chakrabarti 26.8%

Connie Chan 5.9%

Darren Helton <1%

Polymarket

$337,773 Vol.

Scott Wiener

$35,195 Vol.

63%

Saikat Chakrabarti

$19,477 Vol.

29%

Connie Chan

$201,860 Vol.

11%

Darren Helton

$17,545 Vol.

<1%

Jingchao Xiong

$39,792 Vol.

<1%

David Ganezer

$9,914 Vol.

<1%

Cole Bettles

$13,991 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Scott Wiener leads trader consensus at 66% implied probability to finish first in California's top-two primary for the open CA-11 seat vacated by retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi, buoyed by his dominant fundraising haul exceeding $2.8 million and strong establishment backing in San Francisco's Democratic machine. Recent Data for Progress polling from early April shows a tightening race, with Wiener at 33%, challenger Saikat Chakrabarti surging to 28% on self-funding and progressive endorsements like Justice Democrats, while Supervisor Connie Chan slips to 13% despite Asian American outreach. March 31 and April debates highlighted stylistic divides—Wiener's pragmatic incumbency versus Chakrabarti's insurgency—yet traders favor Wiener's name recognition ahead of the March 2026 primary, tempered by SEIU California's recent endorsement withdrawal over a tax dispute.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$337,773
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Scott Wiener leads trader consensus at 66% implied probability to finish first in California's top-two primary for the open CA-11 seat vacated by retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi, buoyed by his dominant fundraising haul exceeding $2.8 million and strong establishment backing in San Francisco's Democratic machine. Recent Data for Progress polling from early April shows a tightening race, with Wiener at 33%, challenger Saikat Chakrabarti surging to 28% on self-funding and progressive endorsements like Justice Democrats, while Supervisor Connie Chan slips to 13% despite Asian American outreach. March 31 and April debates highlighted stylistic divides—Wiener's pragmatic incumbency versus Chakrabarti's insurgency—yet traders favor Wiener's name recognition ahead of the March 2026 primary, tempered by SEIU California's recent endorsement withdrawal over a tax dispute.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$337,773
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Scott Wiener" at 63%, followed by "Saikat Chakrabarti" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" has generated $337.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" is "Scott Wiener" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Saikat Chakrabarti" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.