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Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Édouard Philippe 24%

Jordan Bardella 24%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$23,264,072 Vol.

Édouard Philippe 24%

Jordan Bardella 24%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$23,264,072 Vol.

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Édouard Philippe

$373,280 Vol.

24%

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Jordan Bardella

$593,875 Vol.

24%

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$211,560 Vol.

9%

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Marine Le Pen

$280,441 Vol.

8%

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Dominique de Villepin

$784,947 Vol.

6%

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Raphaël Glucksmann

$438,107 Vol.

4%

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Bruno Retailleau

$872,685 Vol.

4%

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François Hollande

$532,708 Vol.

4%

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Sarah Knafo

$934,669 Vol.

3%

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Gabriel Attal

$817,922 Vol.

3%

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David Lisnard

$644,447 Vol.

3%

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Sébastien Lecornu

$572,104 Vol.

2%

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Jean Castex

$439,617 Vol.

1%

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Gérald Darmanin

$301,993 Vol.

1%

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Éric Zemmour

$327,593 Vol.

1%

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Juan Branco

$246,779 Vol.

1%

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Bernard Cazeneuve

$271,346 Vol.

1%

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François Ruffin

$276,789 Vol.

1%

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Marine Tondelier

$332,453 Vol.

<1%

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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,105,427 Vol.

<1%

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Laurent Wauquiez

$281,082 Vol.

<1%

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Fabien Roussel

$811,535 Vol.

<1%

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François Asselineau

$1,070,448 Vol.

<1%

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Valérie Pécresse

$916,574 Vol.

<1%

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Élisabeth Borne

$931,460 Vol.

<1%

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Manuel Bompard

$684,980 Vol.

<1%

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Xavier Bertrand

$419,085 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Olivier Faure

$638,171 Vol.

<1%

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Ségolène Royal

$820,872 Vol.

<1%

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Clémentine Autain

$1,251,390 Vol.

<1%

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Michel Barnier

$741,316 Vol.

<1%

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François Bayrou

$904,389 Vol.

<1%

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Yaël Braun-Pivet

$743,497 Vol.

<1%

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Clémence Guetté

$1,015,452 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Carole Delga

$676,770 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mathilde Panot

$999,930 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).**Recent municipal elections concluding March 22, 2026, have kept the 2027 French presidential race tightly contested between Édouard Philippe and Jordan Bardella, as trader consensus reflects on Polymarket.** Philippe's strong reelection as Le Havre mayor—on which he conditioned his candidacy—has fortified his centrist Horizons positioning, narrowing the gap with Bardella's National Rally despite the far right's gains in smaller towns but blockages in major cities by mainstream alliances. Latest Ifop and Elabe polls show Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at 35-36% versus Philippe's 16-25%, with a fragmented left (Mélenchon at ~10%) and divided right (Le Pen trailing) preventing separation. Les Républicains' upcoming primary vote and left-wing infighting over alliances could tip balances ahead of the April 2027 first round.

**Recent municipal elections concluding March 22, 2026, have kept the 2027 French presidential race tightly contested between Édouard Philippe and Jordan Bardella, as trader consensus reflects on Polymarket.** Philippe's strong reelection as Le Havre mayor—on which he conditioned his candidacy—has fortified his centrist Horizons positioning, narrowing the gap with Bardella's National Rally despite the far right's gains in smaller towns but blockages in major cities by mainstream alliances. Latest Ifop and Elabe polls show Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at 35-36% versus Philippe's 16-25%, with a fragmented left (Mélenchon at ~10%) and divided right (Le Pen trailing) preventing separation. Les Républicains' upcoming primary vote and left-wing infighting over alliances could tip balances ahead of the April 2027 first round.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).**Recent municipal elections concluding March 22, 2026, have kept the 2027 French presidential race tightly contested between Édouard Philippe and Jordan Bardella, as trader consensus reflects on Polymarket.** Philippe's strong reelection as Le Havre mayor—on which he conditioned his candidacy—has fortified his centrist Horizons positioning, narrowing the gap with Bardella's National Rally despite the far right's gains in smaller towns but blockages in major cities by mainstream alliances. Latest Ifop and Elabe polls show Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at 35-36% versus Philippe's 16-25%, with a fragmented left (Mélenchon at ~10%) and divided right (Le Pen trailing) preventing separation. Les Républicains' upcoming primary vote and left-wing infighting over alliances could tip balances ahead of the April 2027 first round.

**Recent municipal elections concluding March 22, 2026, have kept the 2027 French presidential race tightly contested between Édouard Philippe and Jordan Bardella, as trader consensus reflects on Polymarket.** Philippe's strong reelection as Le Havre mayor—on which he conditioned his candidacy—has fortified his centrist Horizons positioning, narrowing the gap with Bardella's National Rally despite the far right's gains in smaller towns but blockages in major cities by mainstream alliances. Latest Ifop and Elabe polls show Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at 35-36% versus Philippe's 16-25%, with a fragmented left (Mélenchon at ~10%) and divided right (Le Pen trailing) preventing separation. Les Républicains' upcoming primary vote and left-wing infighting over alliances could tip balances ahead of the April 2027 first round.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 24%, followed by "Jordan Bardella" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $23.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Édouard Philippe" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.