Recent Elabe polls for BFMTV, released March 28, 2026, position Jordan Bardella of the National Rally and Édouard Philippe of Horizons as the leading contenders for the 2027 presidential election's first round, with Bardella at around 35% and Philippe at 20-25% in voting intentions, closely mirroring Polymarket's tied trader consensus at 23.5% each. This deadlock stems from March municipal elections that exposed ongoing political fragmentation—far-right gains in places like Nice but left holds in Paris and Marseille—amid Macron's term limit barring reelection and a splintered center-right and left field. Philippe emerges as the only figure projected to defeat RN in a second-round runoff, sustaining the tight race. Separation could arise from Les Républicains' upcoming presidential primary vote, formal candidate declarations, or shifting alliances before the April 2027 contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNext French Presidential Election
Next French Presidential Election
Édouard Philippe 24%
Jordan Bardella 24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$23,176,814 Vol.
$23,176,814 Vol.
Édouard Philippe
24%
Jordan Bardella
24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
9%
Marine Le Pen
8%
Dominique de Villepin
5%
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
François Hollande
4%
Bruno Retailleau
3%
Sarah Knafo
3%
David Lisnard
3%
Gabriel Attal
3%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Gérald Darmanin
1%
Jean Castex
1%
Éric Zemmour
1%
Juan Branco
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Valérie Pécresse
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Manuel Bompard
<1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Olivier Faure
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
François Bayrou
<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
Édouard Philippe 24%
Jordan Bardella 24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$23,176,814 Vol.
$23,176,814 Vol.
Édouard Philippe
24%
Jordan Bardella
24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
9%
Marine Le Pen
8%
Dominique de Villepin
5%
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
François Hollande
4%
Bruno Retailleau
3%
Sarah Knafo
3%
David Lisnard
3%
Gabriel Attal
3%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Gérald Darmanin
1%
Jean Castex
1%
Éric Zemmour
1%
Juan Branco
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Valérie Pécresse
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Manuel Bompard
<1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Olivier Faure
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
François Bayrou
<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Elabe polls for BFMTV, released March 28, 2026, position Jordan Bardella of the National Rally and Édouard Philippe of Horizons as the leading contenders for the 2027 presidential election's first round, with Bardella at around 35% and Philippe at 20-25% in voting intentions, closely mirroring Polymarket's tied trader consensus at 23.5% each. This deadlock stems from March municipal elections that exposed ongoing political fragmentation—far-right gains in places like Nice but left holds in Paris and Marseille—amid Macron's term limit barring reelection and a splintered center-right and left field. Philippe emerges as the only figure projected to defeat RN in a second-round runoff, sustaining the tight race. Separation could arise from Les Républicains' upcoming presidential primary vote, formal candidate declarations, or shifting alliances before the April 2027 contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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