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Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Jordan Bardella 25%

Édouard Philippe 23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$22,932,161 Vol.

Jordan Bardella 25%

Édouard Philippe 23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$22,932,161 Vol.

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Jordan Bardella

$590,652 Vol.

25%

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Édouard Philippe

$371,010 Vol.

23%

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$211,536 Vol.

9%

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Marine Le Pen

$280,441 Vol.

8%

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Dominique de Villepin

$783,499 Vol.

5%

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Raphaël Glucksmann

$436,662 Vol.

4%

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Sarah Knafo

$931,171 Vol.

4%

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Bruno Retailleau

$870,006 Vol.

3%

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François Hollande

$527,473 Vol.

3%

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David Lisnard

$642,046 Vol.

3%

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Gabriel Attal

$814,704 Vol.

3%

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Sébastien Lecornu

$570,144 Vol.

2%

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Gérald Darmanin

$301,833 Vol.

1%

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Jean Castex

$439,307 Vol.

1%

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Éric Zemmour

$327,593 Vol.

1%

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Juan Branco

$246,632 Vol.

1%

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Valérie Pécresse

$871,895 Vol.

1%

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Bernard Cazeneuve

$247,116 Vol.

1%

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François Ruffin

$276,737 Vol.

1%

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Marine Tondelier

$332,105 Vol.

<1%

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Laurent Wauquiez

$281,082 Vol.

<1%

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Fabien Roussel

$809,293 Vol.

<1%

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François Asselineau

$1,036,613 Vol.

<1%

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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,102,371 Vol.

<1%

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Élisabeth Borne

$897,752 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Manuel Bompard

$684,882 Vol.

<1%

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Xavier Bertrand

$417,649 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Olivier Faure

$633,318 Vol.

<1%

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Ségolène Royal

$817,124 Vol.

<1%

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Clémentine Autain

$1,212,764 Vol.

<1%

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Michel Barnier

$737,325 Vol.

<1%

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François Bayrou

$872,329 Vol.

<1%

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Yaël Braun-Pivet

$704,260 Vol.

<1%

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Clémence Guetté

$980,250 Vol.

<1%

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Carole Delga

$674,324 Vol.

<1%

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Mathilde Panot

$998,980 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polls, including BFMTV-Elabe and Ifop surveys from late March 2026, position National Rally leader Jordan Bardella ahead in first-round voting intentions at around 35-36%, with former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe trailing at 20-25% as the leading center-right alternative, driving trader consensus to a razor-thin 24.5%-22.5% split. Philippe's strong reelection as Le Havre mayor in the March 22 municipal election runoffs has solidified his viability, while RN's failure to capture major cities like Paris and Marseille exposed urban limits and bolstered perceptions of his second-round edge in head-to-head matchups. A fragmented left, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 8-13%, ensures a likely right-wing runoff; consolidation on either side, candidate nominations, or economic shocks could widen the gap ahead of the April 2027 vote.

Recent polls, including BFMTV-Elabe and Ifop surveys from late March 2026, position National Rally leader Jordan Bardella ahead in first-round voting intentions at around 35-36%, with former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe trailing at 20-25% as the leading center-right alternative, driving trader consensus to a razor-thin 24.5%-22.5% split. Philippe's strong reelection as Le Havre mayor in the March 22 municipal election runoffs has solidified his viability, while RN's failure to capture major cities like Paris and Marseille exposed urban limits and bolstered perceptions of his second-round edge in head-to-head matchups. A fragmented left, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 8-13%, ensures a likely right-wing runoff; consolidation on either side, candidate nominations, or economic shocks could widen the gap ahead of the April 2027 vote.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polls, including BFMTV-Elabe and Ifop surveys from late March 2026, position National Rally leader Jordan Bardella ahead in first-round voting intentions at around 35-36%, with former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe trailing at 20-25% as the leading center-right alternative, driving trader consensus to a razor-thin 24.5%-22.5% split. Philippe's strong reelection as Le Havre mayor in the March 22 municipal election runoffs has solidified his viability, while RN's failure to capture major cities like Paris and Marseille exposed urban limits and bolstered perceptions of his second-round edge in head-to-head matchups. A fragmented left, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 8-13%, ensures a likely right-wing runoff; consolidation on either side, candidate nominations, or economic shocks could widen the gap ahead of the April 2027 vote.

Recent polls, including BFMTV-Elabe and Ifop surveys from late March 2026, position National Rally leader Jordan Bardella ahead in first-round voting intentions at around 35-36%, with former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe trailing at 20-25% as the leading center-right alternative, driving trader consensus to a razor-thin 24.5%-22.5% split. Philippe's strong reelection as Le Havre mayor in the March 22 municipal election runoffs has solidified his viability, while RN's failure to capture major cities like Paris and Marseille exposed urban limits and bolstered perceptions of his second-round edge in head-to-head matchups. A fragmented left, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 8-13%, ensures a likely right-wing runoff; consolidation on either side, candidate nominations, or economic shocks could widen the gap ahead of the April 2027 vote.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 25%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $22.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Jordan Bardella" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.