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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.1%

Jon Ossoff 5.4%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$956,587,058 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.1%

Jon Ossoff 5.4%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$956,587,058 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$17,342,725 Vol.

25%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,439,226 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$6,228,658 Vol.

5%

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Kamala Harris

$8,861,920 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,008,004 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,623,880 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$6,600,503 Vol.

3%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,250,415 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$4,731,614 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$10,751,785 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,559,476 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,829,450 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,317,722 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,713,351 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,672,281 Vol.

2%

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Michelle Obama

$21,965,944 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$14,183,287 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,397,901 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,480,569 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,238,115 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,945,546 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,871,608 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,113,373 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,208,667 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,769,945 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,478,015 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,328,003 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,545,391 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,433,405 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,884,630 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,855,346 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,510,786 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,767,743 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,691,908 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,690,328 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$25,547,254 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,264,410 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,817,890 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,395,895 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,711,312 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,711,248 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$23,193,330 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$39,399,092 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,294,818 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.5% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination amid a fragmented field, driven by his recent New Hampshire book tour on March 5—targeting the early primary state—and a March 12 POLITICO poll showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in their home-state California primary matchup. His executive experience as term-limited California governor, substantial fundraising war chest exceeding $25 million, and national anti-Trump profile differentiate him from progressive challenger Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8.1%), who draws youth and left-wing support, and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff (5.4%), buoyed by swing-state incumbency. Support could consolidate post-2026 midterms via standout gubernatorial or Senate performances, formal announcements, or party endorsements, though early polling averages still favor Harris nationally.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$956,587,058
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.5% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination amid a fragmented field, driven by his recent New Hampshire book tour on March 5—targeting the early primary state—and a March 12 POLITICO poll showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in their home-state California primary matchup. His executive experience as term-limited California governor, substantial fundraising war chest exceeding $25 million, and national anti-Trump profile differentiate him from progressive challenger Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8.1%), who draws youth and left-wing support, and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff (5.4%), buoyed by swing-state incumbency. Support could consolidate post-2026 midterms via standout gubernatorial or Senate performances, formal announcements, or party endorsements, though early polling averages still favor Harris nationally.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$956,587,058
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $956.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.