Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68.5% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilience in core economic indicators despite a recent oil price shock from US-Iran tensions pushing crude above $100 per barrel and gas toward $4/gallon. March FOMC projections show median 2026 real GDP growth at 2.4%—near potential—with unemployment steady at 4.4% and core PCE inflation modestly elevated, prompting the Fed to hold fed funds at 3.50%-3.75% amid cautious easing outlook. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index dipped just 0.1% in January, while nominal retail sales rose 0.6% in February. Key catalysts ahead include April 30 Q1 GDP release and May FOMC, where oil-driven inflation could sway rate path expectations and sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS recession by end of 2026?
US recession by end of 2026?
$1,053,987 Vol.
$1,053,987 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
$1,053,987 Vol.
$1,053,987 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68.5% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilience in core economic indicators despite a recent oil price shock from US-Iran tensions pushing crude above $100 per barrel and gas toward $4/gallon. March FOMC projections show median 2026 real GDP growth at 2.4%—near potential—with unemployment steady at 4.4% and core PCE inflation modestly elevated, prompting the Fed to hold fed funds at 3.50%-3.75% amid cautious easing outlook. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index dipped just 0.1% in January, while nominal retail sales rose 0.6% in February. Key catalysts ahead include April 30 Q1 GDP release and May FOMC, where oil-driven inflation could sway rate path expectations and sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Market Opened: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,053,987End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68.5% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilience in core economic indicators despite a recent oil price shock from US-Iran tensions pushing crude above $100 per barrel and gas toward $4/gallon. March FOMC projections show median 2026 real GDP growth at 2.4%—near potential—with unemployment steady at 4.4% and core PCE inflation modestly elevated, prompting the Fed to hold fed funds at 3.50%-3.75% amid cautious easing outlook. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index dipped just 0.1% in January, while nominal retail sales rose 0.6% in February. Key catalysts ahead include April 30 Q1 GDP release and May FOMC, where oil-driven inflation could sway rate path expectations and sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$1,053,987End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68.5% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilience in core economic indicators despite a recent oil price shock from US-Iran tensions pushing crude above $100 per barrel and gas toward $4/gallon. March FOMC projections show median 2026 real GDP growth at 2.4%—near potential—with unemployment steady at 4.4% and core PCE inflation modestly elevated, prompting the Fed to hold fed funds at 3.50%-3.75% amid cautious easing outlook. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index dipped just 0.1% in January, while nominal retail sales rose 0.6% in February. Key catalysts ahead include April 30 Q1 GDP release and May FOMC, where oil-driven inflation could sway rate path expectations and sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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