Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability for the Bank of Korea to hold its base rate steady at 2.50% in its April 10 meeting, extending a pause spanning six consecutive decisions since July 2025 amid balanced economic risks. This strong positioning stems from March 2026 CPI inflation at 2.2% year-over-year—up slightly from February's 2.0% but undershooting forecasts of 2.4%—keeping price pressures near the central bank's 2% target, alongside upgraded 2026 GDP growth projections to 2.0%. Recent unanimous holds and a Reuters poll forecasting no changes through year-end reinforce the neutral monetary policy stance under new Governor Rhee Chang-yong. Realistic challenges include a sharper energy-led inflation surge from Mideast tensions or accelerated won depreciation prompting a hike, though current data shows limited upside risks ahead of the decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBank of Korea decision in April?
Bank of Korea decision in April?
No Change 98.5%
Increase 1.1%
Decrease <1%
$52,357 Vol.
$52,357 Vol.
Decrease
<1%
No Change
99%
Increase
1%
No Change 98.5%
Increase 1.1%
Decrease <1%
$52,357 Vol.
$52,357 Vol.
Decrease
<1%
No Change
99%
Increase
1%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its April 10, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their April 10, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jan 15, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its April 10, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their April 10, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability for the Bank of Korea to hold its base rate steady at 2.50% in its April 10 meeting, extending a pause spanning six consecutive decisions since July 2025 amid balanced economic risks. This strong positioning stems from March 2026 CPI inflation at 2.2% year-over-year—up slightly from February's 2.0% but undershooting forecasts of 2.4%—keeping price pressures near the central bank's 2% target, alongside upgraded 2026 GDP growth projections to 2.0%. Recent unanimous holds and a Reuters poll forecasting no changes through year-end reinforce the neutral monetary policy stance under new Governor Rhee Chang-yong. Realistic challenges include a sharper energy-led inflation surge from Mideast tensions or accelerated won depreciation prompting a hike, though current data shows limited upside risks ahead of the decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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