Market icon
Economy·Global Rates

Bank of Mexico Decision in May

Market icon
Economy·Global Rates

Bank of Mexico Decision in May

May 7

May 7

No change 68%

Decrease 30%

Increase 6.0%

Polymarket
NEW

No change 68%

Decrease 30%

Increase 6.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Decrease

$529 Vol.

30%

No change

$1,409 Vol.

68%

Increase

$285 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 67.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Mexico's benchmark rate at 11% for the May 9 meeting, driven by April CPI easing to 4.24% year-over-year from 4.32% while core inflation lingers around 3.8%—above the 3% target—prompting a data-dependent pause after March's hold. Peso appreciation against the dollar has muted imported inflation risks, bolstering the no-change consensus, though 29.5% odds on a decrease reflect hopes for disinflation momentum amid nearshoring tailwinds and fiscal prudence ahead of June elections. Rate hikes at 6.2% remain remote without renewed price pressures. Watch Friday's first-quarter GDP release for final positioning cues.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$2,223
End Date
May 7, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 67.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Mexico's benchmark rate at 11% for the May 9 meeting, driven by April CPI easing to 4.24% year-over-year from 4.32% while core inflation lingers around 3.8%—above the 3% target—prompting a data-dependent pause after March's hold. Peso appreciation against the dollar has muted imported inflation risks, bolstering the no-change consensus, though 29.5% odds on a decrease reflect hopes for disinflation momentum amid nearshoring tailwinds and fiscal prudence ahead of June elections. Rate hikes at 6.2% remain remote without renewed price pressures. Watch Friday's first-quarter GDP release for final positioning cues.

Polymarket traders assign a 67.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Mexico's benchmark rate at 11% for the May 9 meeting, driven by April CPI easing to 4.24% year-over-year from 4.32% while core inflation lingers around 3.8%—above the 3% target—prompting a data-dependent pause after March's hold. Peso appreciation against the dollar has muted imported inflation risks, bolstering the no-change consensus, though 29.5% odds on a decrease reflect hopes for disinflation momentum amid nearshoring tailwinds and fiscal prudence ahead of June elections. Rate hikes at 6.2% remain remote without renewed price pressures. Watch Friday's first-quarter GDP release for final positioning cues.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Bank of Mexico Decision in May" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No change" at 68%, followed by "Decrease" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 68¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Bank of Mexico Decision in May" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Bank of Mexico Decision in May," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Bank of Mexico Decision in May" is "No change" at 68%, meaning the market assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Decrease" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Bank of Mexico Decision in May" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.