Eurozone inflation surged to 3% in April, exceeding the ECB's 2% target amid rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, prompting the Governing Council to hold key interest rates steady at its April 30 meeting while debating a hike. ECB policymakers, including Isabel Schnabel on May 7 and Peter Kazimir on May 4, have since signaled a June rate increase as "all but inevitable" if pressures persist, with board member Piero Cipollone noting elevated hike odds due to sticky inflation expectations. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus at 86.5% for a 2026 hike reflects these hawkish signals and upcoming June policy decision, though short-lived spikes could alter the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$109,107 Vol.
$109,107 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$109,107 Vol.
$109,107 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation surged to 3% in April, exceeding the ECB's 2% target amid rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, prompting the Governing Council to hold key interest rates steady at its April 30 meeting while debating a hike. ECB policymakers, including Isabel Schnabel on May 7 and Peter Kazimir on May 4, have since signaled a June rate increase as "all but inevitable" if pressures persist, with board member Piero Cipollone noting elevated hike odds due to sticky inflation expectations. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus at 86.5% for a 2026 hike reflects these hawkish signals and upcoming June policy decision, though short-lived spikes could alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$109,107End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation surged to 3% in April, exceeding the ECB's 2% target amid rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, prompting the Governing Council to hold key interest rates steady at its April 30 meeting while debating a hike. ECB policymakers, including Isabel Schnabel on May 7 and Peter Kazimir on May 4, have since signaled a June rate increase as "all but inevitable" if pressures persist, with board member Piero Cipollone noting elevated hike odds due to sticky inflation expectations. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus at 86.5% for a 2026 hike reflects these hawkish signals and upcoming June policy decision, though short-lived spikes could alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$109,107End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Eurozone inflation surged to 3% in April, exceeding the ECB's 2% target amid rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, prompting the Governing Council to hold key interest rates steady at its April 30 meeting while debating a hike. ECB policymakers, including Isabel Schnabel on May 7 and Peter Kazimir on May 4, have since signaled a June rate increase as "all but inevitable" if pressures persist, with board member Piero Cipollone noting elevated hike odds due to sticky inflation expectations. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus at 86.5% for a 2026 hike reflects these hawkish signals and upcoming June policy decision, though short-lived spikes could alter the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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