Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites, including missile production facilities, in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel—marking the most recent direct military action against Iran. Iran downplayed the damage as limited and vowed a measured response, while Israeli officials stated the operation achieved its objectives without hitting nuclear or oil infrastructure. No further escalations have occurred in the past week, with both sides signaling restraint amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and ongoing proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah and Houthis. Active Oman- and Qatar-mediated talks, alongside IAEA concerns over Iran's uranium enrichment, sustain tensions, but trader consensus reflects potential de-escalation ahead of the U.S. election on November 5 and possible Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$144,908 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
3%
March 29
5%
March 30
7%
March 31
10%
April 15
31%
April 30
54%
May 31
53%
June 30
77%
$144,908 Vol.
March 26
$19,977 Vol.
<1%
March 27
$7,581 Vol.
<1%
March 28
$13,732 Vol.
3%
March 29
$19,500 Vol.
5%
March 30
$15,355 Vol.
7%
March 31
$68,127 Vol.
10%
April 15
$486 Vol.
31%
April 30
$0 Vol.
54%
May 31
$148 Vol.
53%
June 30
$0 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites, including missile production facilities, in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel—marking the most recent direct military action against Iran. Iran downplayed the damage as limited and vowed a measured response, while Israeli officials stated the operation achieved its objectives without hitting nuclear or oil infrastructure. No further escalations have occurred in the past week, with both sides signaling restraint amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and ongoing proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah and Houthis. Active Oman- and Qatar-mediated talks, alongside IAEA concerns over Iran's uranium enrichment, sustain tensions, but trader consensus reflects potential de-escalation ahead of the U.S. election on November 5 and possible Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$144,908End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites, including missile production facilities, in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel—marking the most recent direct military action against Iran. Iran downplayed the damage as limited and vowed a measured response, while Israeli officials stated the operation achieved its objectives without hitting nuclear or oil infrastructure. No further escalations have occurred in the past week, with both sides signaling restraint amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and ongoing proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah and Houthis. Active Oman- and Qatar-mediated talks, alongside IAEA concerns over Iran's uranium enrichment, sustain tensions, but trader consensus reflects potential de-escalation ahead of the U.S. election on November 5 and possible Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$144,908End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites, including missile production facilities, in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel—marking the most recent direct military action against Iran. Iran downplayed the damage as limited and vowed a measured response, while Israeli officials stated the operation achieved its objectives without hitting nuclear or oil infrastructure. No further escalations have occurred in the past week, with both sides signaling restraint amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and ongoing proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah and Houthis. Active Oman- and Qatar-mediated talks, alongside IAEA concerns over Iran's uranium enrichment, sustain tensions, but trader consensus reflects potential de-escalation ahead of the U.S. election on November 5 and possible Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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