Incumbent Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability in the PA-05 House race, driven by her dominant history of 65%+ victories in this D+15 district encompassing Delaware County suburbs and parts of Philadelphia. Forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by Scanlon's $368,000 cash-on-hand as of late 2025 versus zero for primary challengers on both sides. Recent endorsements, including from Lt. Gov. Austin Davis in February, underscore her strength ahead of the May 19 primaries. GOP nominees Joshua Brown and Nick Manganaro lack resources or profile. Upsets would require a late high-profile Republican recruit, Scanlon scandal, or national GOP midterm wave shifting Pennsylvania's battleground dynamics before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$5,312 Vol.
93%
共和党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability in the PA-05 House race, driven by her dominant history of 65%+ victories in this D+15 district encompassing Delaware County suburbs and parts of Philadelphia. Forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by Scanlon's $368,000 cash-on-hand as of late 2025 versus zero for primary challengers on both sides. Recent endorsements, including from Lt. Gov. Austin Davis in February, underscore her strength ahead of the May 19 primaries. GOP nominees Joshua Brown and Nick Manganaro lack resources or profile. Upsets would require a late high-profile Republican recruit, Scanlon scandal, or national GOP midterm wave shifting Pennsylvania's battleground dynamics before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$5,312終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability in the PA-05 House race, driven by her dominant history of 65%+ victories in this D+15 district encompassing Delaware County suburbs and parts of Philadelphia. Forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by Scanlon's $368,000 cash-on-hand as of late 2025 versus zero for primary challengers on both sides. Recent endorsements, including from Lt. Gov. Austin Davis in February, underscore her strength ahead of the May 19 primaries. GOP nominees Joshua Brown and Nick Manganaro lack resources or profile. Upsets would require a late high-profile Republican recruit, Scanlon scandal, or national GOP midterm wave shifting Pennsylvania's battleground dynamics before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$5,312終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability in the PA-05 House race, driven by her dominant history of 65%+ victories in this D+15 district encompassing Delaware County suburbs and parts of Philadelphia. Forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by Scanlon's $368,000 cash-on-hand as of late 2025 versus zero for primary challengers on both sides. Recent endorsements, including from Lt. Gov. Austin Davis in February, underscore her strength ahead of the May 19 primaries. GOP nominees Joshua Brown and Nick Manganaro lack resources or profile. Upsets would require a late high-profile Republican recruit, Scanlon scandal, or national GOP midterm wave shifting Pennsylvania's battleground dynamics before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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