The open CA-38 seat, redrawn under Proposition 50 and rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report (PVI D+8 to D+10), drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 91.5% for the November 3 general election. Following incumbent Linda Sánchez's departure, a crowded top-two primary field on June 2 features three Democrats—Hilda Solis (County Supervisor with state party endorsement and $398,000 cash on hand), Monica Sánchez (Mayor Pro Tem), and Erik Lutz (Councilman)—against lone Republican Pedro Casas, who reports no fundraising. Historical 55-60% Democratic general margins and 54.5% Biden vote in 2024 underscore the district's partisan tilt in Democratic-leaning eastern Los Angeles suburbs. Upsets could stem from low Democratic primary turnout propelling Casas to the general or a nominee scandal, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$35,358 Vol.
$35,358 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
$35,358 Vol.
$35,358 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,721 Vol.
92%
共和党
$20,637 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open CA-38 seat, redrawn under Proposition 50 and rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report (PVI D+8 to D+10), drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 91.5% for the November 3 general election. Following incumbent Linda Sánchez's departure, a crowded top-two primary field on June 2 features three Democrats—Hilda Solis (County Supervisor with state party endorsement and $398,000 cash on hand), Monica Sánchez (Mayor Pro Tem), and Erik Lutz (Councilman)—against lone Republican Pedro Casas, who reports no fundraising. Historical 55-60% Democratic general margins and 54.5% Biden vote in 2024 underscore the district's partisan tilt in Democratic-leaning eastern Los Angeles suburbs. Upsets could stem from low Democratic primary turnout propelling Casas to the general or a nominee scandal, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$35,358終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open CA-38 seat, redrawn under Proposition 50 and rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report (PVI D+8 to D+10), drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 91.5% for the November 3 general election. Following incumbent Linda Sánchez's departure, a crowded top-two primary field on June 2 features three Democrats—Hilda Solis (County Supervisor with state party endorsement and $398,000 cash on hand), Monica Sánchez (Mayor Pro Tem), and Erik Lutz (Councilman)—against lone Republican Pedro Casas, who reports no fundraising. Historical 55-60% Democratic general margins and 54.5% Biden vote in 2024 underscore the district's partisan tilt in Democratic-leaning eastern Los Angeles suburbs. Upsets could stem from low Democratic primary turnout propelling Casas to the general or a nominee scandal, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$35,358終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open CA-38 seat, redrawn under Proposition 50 and rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report (PVI D+8 to D+10), drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 91.5% for the November 3 general election. Following incumbent Linda Sánchez's departure, a crowded top-two primary field on June 2 features three Democrats—Hilda Solis (County Supervisor with state party endorsement and $398,000 cash on hand), Monica Sánchez (Mayor Pro Tem), and Erik Lutz (Councilman)—against lone Republican Pedro Casas, who reports no fundraising. Historical 55-60% Democratic general margins and 54.5% Biden vote in 2024 underscore the district's partisan tilt in Democratic-leaning eastern Los Angeles suburbs. Upsets could stem from low Democratic primary turnout propelling Casas to the general or a nominee scandal, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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