The strong Republican lean of Wisconsin's 7th congressional district, reflected in an R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent past results, anchors trader consensus around an 83.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee to win the November 2026 general election. The open seat created by incumbent Tom Tiffany's decision to run for governor adds a competitive primary on the Republican side among candidates including Michael Alfonso and Kevin Hermening, yet the district's structural advantages continue to limit Democratic prospects. With the Democratic primary set for August 11 featuring Chris Armstrong, Fred Clark, and Ginger Murray, recent statewide Democratic gains in judicial races have not altered the fundamentals in this rural northern district, where historical turnout patterns and voter composition sustain the current market positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$17,886 Vol.
$17,886 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
84%
民主党
16%
$17,886 Vol.
$17,886 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$8,874 Vol.
84%
民主党
$9,011 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Wisconsin's 7th congressional district, reflected in an R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent past results, anchors trader consensus around an 83.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee to win the November 2026 general election. The open seat created by incumbent Tom Tiffany's decision to run for governor adds a competitive primary on the Republican side among candidates including Michael Alfonso and Kevin Hermening, yet the district's structural advantages continue to limit Democratic prospects. With the Democratic primary set for August 11 featuring Chris Armstrong, Fred Clark, and Ginger Murray, recent statewide Democratic gains in judicial races have not altered the fundamentals in this rural northern district, where historical turnout patterns and voter composition sustain the current market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$17,886終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Wisconsin's 7th congressional district, reflected in an R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent past results, anchors trader consensus around an 83.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee to win the November 2026 general election. The open seat created by incumbent Tom Tiffany's decision to run for governor adds a competitive primary on the Republican side among candidates including Michael Alfonso and Kevin Hermening, yet the district's structural advantages continue to limit Democratic prospects. With the Democratic primary set for August 11 featuring Chris Armstrong, Fred Clark, and Ginger Murray, recent statewide Democratic gains in judicial races have not altered the fundamentals in this rural northern district, where historical turnout patterns and voter composition sustain the current market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$17,886終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican lean of Wisconsin's 7th congressional district, reflected in an R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent past results, anchors trader consensus around an 83.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee to win the November 2026 general election. The open seat created by incumbent Tom Tiffany's decision to run for governor adds a competitive primary on the Republican side among candidates including Michael Alfonso and Kevin Hermening, yet the district's structural advantages continue to limit Democratic prospects. With the Democratic primary set for August 11 featuring Chris Armstrong, Fred Clark, and Ginger Murray, recent statewide Democratic gains in judicial races have not altered the fundamentals in this rural northern district, where historical turnout patterns and voter composition sustain the current market positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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