Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 85.5% implied probability for the TX-21 House seat following the March 3, 2026, primaries, where former MLB star Mark Teixeira secured the GOP nomination with 62.6% in a crowded field, showcasing strong base support in this R+11 Cook PVI district spanning San Antonio exurbs and Hill Country. Incumbent Chip Roy vacated for the Texas attorney general race, but Teixeira's fundraising dominance—over $1 million cash on hand versus Democrat Kristin Hook's $76,000—bolsters hold expectations, especially after Roy's 26-point 2024 win over the same Hook. No general election polls exist yet, but Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others reflect historical dominance, with the November general eight months away amid potential national midterm dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
86%
民主党
12%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$7,644 Vol.
86%
民主党
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 85.5% implied probability for the TX-21 House seat following the March 3, 2026, primaries, where former MLB star Mark Teixeira secured the GOP nomination with 62.6% in a crowded field, showcasing strong base support in this R+11 Cook PVI district spanning San Antonio exurbs and Hill Country. Incumbent Chip Roy vacated for the Texas attorney general race, but Teixeira's fundraising dominance—over $1 million cash on hand versus Democrat Kristin Hook's $76,000—bolsters hold expectations, especially after Roy's 26-point 2024 win over the same Hook. No general election polls exist yet, but Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others reflect historical dominance, with the November general eight months away amid potential national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$7,644終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 85.5% implied probability for the TX-21 House seat following the March 3, 2026, primaries, where former MLB star Mark Teixeira secured the GOP nomination with 62.6% in a crowded field, showcasing strong base support in this R+11 Cook PVI district spanning San Antonio exurbs and Hill Country. Incumbent Chip Roy vacated for the Texas attorney general race, but Teixeira's fundraising dominance—over $1 million cash on hand versus Democrat Kristin Hook's $76,000—bolsters hold expectations, especially after Roy's 26-point 2024 win over the same Hook. No general election polls exist yet, but Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others reflect historical dominance, with the November general eight months away amid potential national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$7,644終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 85.5% implied probability for the TX-21 House seat following the March 3, 2026, primaries, where former MLB star Mark Teixeira secured the GOP nomination with 62.6% in a crowded field, showcasing strong base support in this R+11 Cook PVI district spanning San Antonio exurbs and Hill Country. Incumbent Chip Roy vacated for the Texas attorney general race, but Teixeira's fundraising dominance—over $1 million cash on hand versus Democrat Kristin Hook's $76,000—bolsters hold expectations, especially after Roy's 26-point 2024 win over the same Hook. No general election polls exist yet, but Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others reflect historical dominance, with the November general eight months away amid potential national midterm dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問