The intense, high-profile Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein drove elevated participation, with record outside spending and national attention doubling turnout from the 2024 primary's roughly 52,000 votes. This aligned with broader statewide primary trends, where competitive federal races and roughly 29% GOP participation pushed overall ballots cast higher than recent cycles. The 100-110k range captured the observed totals near 105,000. Late certification adjustments, disputes over provisional or absentee ballot inclusion, or shifts in how registered voter bases are calculated could theoretically alter the final count, though such changes remain unlikely given the margin and reporting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日100-110k 99.5%
80-90k <1%
120k+ <1%
<80k <1%
$48,111 Vol.
$48,111 Vol.
2026/05/19
<80k
<1%
80-90k
1%
90-100k
<1%
100-110k
100%
110-120k
<1%
120k+
<1%
100-110k 99.5%
80-90k <1%
120k+ <1%
<80k <1%
$48,111 Vol.
$48,111 Vol.
2026/05/19
<80k
$5,312 Vol.
<1%
80-90k
$4,066 Vol.
1%
90-100k
$2,741 Vol.
<1%
100-110k
$13,472 Vol.
100%
110-120k
$7,064 Vol.
<1%
120k+
$15,456 Vol.
<1%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The intense, high-profile Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein drove elevated participation, with record outside spending and national attention doubling turnout from the 2024 primary's roughly 52,000 votes. This aligned with broader statewide primary trends, where competitive federal races and roughly 29% GOP participation pushed overall ballots cast higher than recent cycles. The 100-110k range captured the observed totals near 105,000. Late certification adjustments, disputes over provisional or absentee ballot inclusion, or shifts in how registered voter bases are calculated could theoretically alter the final count, though such changes remain unlikely given the margin and reporting.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
マーケット開始日： May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
音量
$48,111終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The intense, high-profile Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein drove elevated participation, with record outside spending and national attention doubling turnout from the 2024 primary's roughly 52,000 votes. This aligned with broader statewide primary trends, where competitive federal races and roughly 29% GOP participation pushed overall ballots cast higher than recent cycles. The 100-110k range captured the observed totals near 105,000. Late certification adjustments, disputes over provisional or absentee ballot inclusion, or shifts in how registered voter bases are calculated could theoretically alter the final count, though such changes remain unlikely given the margin and reporting.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
音量
$48,111終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The intense, high-profile Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein drove elevated participation, with record outside spending and national attention doubling turnout from the 2024 primary's roughly 52,000 votes. This aligned with broader statewide primary trends, where competitive federal races and roughly 29% GOP participation pushed overall ballots cast higher than recent cycles. The 100-110k range captured the observed totals near 105,000. Late certification adjustments, disputes over provisional or absentee ballot inclusion, or shifts in how registered voter bases are calculated could theoretically alter the final count, though such changes remain unlikely given the margin and reporting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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