The Makerfield by-election on 18 June features Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, against Reform UK’s local candidate Robert Kenyon, following the May 2026 resignation of the sitting Labour MP. Latest Opinium polling shows Burnham on 46% and Kenyon on 41%, a five-point lead within the margin of error that reflects Reform’s strong 2024 second place and ongoing voter frustration with national politics. This tight contest drives trader pricing, with Burnham’s larger margins leading but substantial probability attached to single-digit or sub-3% outcomes. The result could influence broader party dynamics, though turnout and late shifts remain key variables in this first-past-the-post seat.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Burnham 9%+ 33%
Burnham 6-9% 19%
Burnham 3-6% 13%
Kenyon <3% 12%
$28,580 Vol.
$28,580 Vol.
Burnham 9%+
34%
Burnham 6-9%
19%
Burnham 3-6%
13%
Burnham <3%
9%
Kenyon <3%
12%
Kenyon 3-6%
6%
Kenyon 6%+
4%
Other
3%
Burnham 9%+ 33%
Burnham 6-9% 19%
Burnham 3-6% 13%
Kenyon <3% 12%
$28,580 Vol.
$28,580 Vol.
Burnham 9%+
$5,811 Vol.
34%
Burnham 6-9%
$3,138 Vol.
19%
Burnham 3-6%
$3,137 Vol.
13%
Burnham <3%
$3,596 Vol.
9%
Kenyon <3%
$2,773 Vol.
12%
Kenyon 3-6%
$2,382 Vol.
6%
Kenyon 6%+
$3,354 Vol.
4%
Other
$4,388 Vol.
3%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Makerfield by-election on 18 June features Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, against Reform UK’s local candidate Robert Kenyon, following the May 2026 resignation of the sitting Labour MP. Latest Opinium polling shows Burnham on 46% and Kenyon on 41%, a five-point lead within the margin of error that reflects Reform’s strong 2024 second place and ongoing voter frustration with national politics. This tight contest drives trader pricing, with Burnham’s larger margins leading but substantial probability attached to single-digit or sub-3% outcomes. The result could influence broader party dynamics, though turnout and late shifts remain key variables in this first-past-the-post seat.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
音量
$28,580マーケット開始日
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Makerfield by-election on 18 June features Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, against Reform UK’s local candidate Robert Kenyon, following the May 2026 resignation of the sitting Labour MP. Latest Opinium polling shows Burnham on 46% and Kenyon on 41%, a five-point lead within the margin of error that reflects Reform’s strong 2024 second place and ongoing voter frustration with national politics. This tight contest drives trader pricing, with Burnham’s larger margins leading but substantial probability attached to single-digit or sub-3% outcomes. The result could influence broader party dynamics, though turnout and late shifts remain key variables in this first-past-the-post seat.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$28,580マーケット開始日
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Makerfield by-election on 18 June features Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, against Reform UK’s local candidate Robert Kenyon, following the May 2026 resignation of the sitting Labour MP. Latest Opinium polling shows Burnham on 46% and Kenyon on 41%, a five-point lead within the margin of error that reflects Reform’s strong 2024 second place and ongoing voter frustration with national politics. This tight contest drives trader pricing, with Burnham’s larger margins leading but substantial probability attached to single-digit or sub-3% outcomes. The result could influence broader party dynamics, though turnout and late shifts remain key variables in this first-past-the-post seat.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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