Trump's endorsement of Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with strong voter support in Boone, Kenton, Campbell, and Oldham counties, produced a decisive primary result on May 19, 2026. Gallrein defeated seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie by 9.6 points (roughly 55% to 45%), with record outside spending amplifying the shift away from Massie's base. Massie conceded on election night after trailing throughout the count. With ballots now certified and no active legal challenges, the certified margin aligns with the dominant trader consensus. Only extraordinary post-certification developments, such as successful recounts or court interventions outside standard primary procedures, could alter the locked-in outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ガルレイン 9％以上 99.1%
ガルレイン 6-9％ <1%
Gallrein 3-6% <1%
Gallrein <3% <1%
$191,543 Vol.
$191,543 Vol.
2026/05/19
ガルレイン 9％以上
99%
ガルレイン 6-9％
1%
Gallrein 3-6%
<1%
Gallrein <3%
<1%
Massie <3%
<1%
Massie 3-6%
<1%
Massie 6%+
<1%
Other
<1%
ガルレイン 9％以上 99.1%
ガルレイン 6-9％ <1%
Gallrein 3-6% <1%
Gallrein <3% <1%
$191,543 Vol.
$191,543 Vol.
2026/05/19
ガルレイン 9％以上
$123,685 Vol.
99%
ガルレイン 6-9％
$11,672 Vol.
1%
Gallrein 3-6%
$7,618 Vol.
<1%
Gallrein <3%
$5,574 Vol.
<1%
Massie <3%
$9,852 Vol.
<1%
Massie 3-6%
$18,187 Vol.
<1%
Massie 6%+
$13,866 Vol.
<1%
Other
$1,089 Vol.
<1%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trump's endorsement of Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with strong voter support in Boone, Kenton, Campbell, and Oldham counties, produced a decisive primary result on May 19, 2026. Gallrein defeated seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie by 9.6 points (roughly 55% to 45%), with record outside spending amplifying the shift away from Massie's base. Massie conceded on election night after trailing throughout the count. With ballots now certified and no active legal challenges, the certified margin aligns with the dominant trader consensus. Only extraordinary post-certification developments, such as successful recounts or court interventions outside standard primary procedures, could alter the locked-in outcome.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ET
音量
$191,543終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trump's endorsement of Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with strong voter support in Boone, Kenton, Campbell, and Oldham counties, produced a decisive primary result on May 19, 2026. Gallrein defeated seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie by 9.6 points (roughly 55% to 45%), with record outside spending amplifying the shift away from Massie's base. Massie conceded on election night after trailing throughout the count. With ballots now certified and no active legal challenges, the certified margin aligns with the dominant trader consensus. Only extraordinary post-certification developments, such as successful recounts or court interventions outside standard primary procedures, could alter the locked-in outcome.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$191,543終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trump's endorsement of Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with strong voter support in Boone, Kenton, Campbell, and Oldham counties, produced a decisive primary result on May 19, 2026. Gallrein defeated seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie by 9.6 points (roughly 55% to 45%), with record outside spending amplifying the shift away from Massie's base. Massie conceded on election night after trailing throughout the count. With ballots now certified and no active legal challenges, the certified margin aligns with the dominant trader consensus. Only extraordinary post-certification developments, such as successful recounts or court interventions outside standard primary procedures, could alter the locked-in outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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