Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 67.5% implied probability of victory in Virginia's 5th Congressional District, reflecting strong recruitment led by former Rep. Tom Perriello, who has dominated early fundraising at a three-to-one ratio over incumbent Rep. John McGuire and secured endorsements like Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger. The DCCC's February addition of VA-05 to its 2026 Districts in Play underscores Democratic investment in this R+6 seat, amplified by pending legislative redistricting—a constitutional amendment on the April 21 ballot that bettors increasingly expect to pass, potentially shifting boundaries toward competitiveness. McGuire's February re-election bid faces a primary challenge from Chris Lucero ahead of the August 4 primaries, straining GOP resources amid no public polling yet.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$16,904 Vol.
$16,904 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
68%
共和党
27%
$16,904 Vol.
$16,904 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$6,811 Vol.
68%
共和党
$10,093 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 67.5% implied probability of victory in Virginia's 5th Congressional District, reflecting strong recruitment led by former Rep. Tom Perriello, who has dominated early fundraising at a three-to-one ratio over incumbent Rep. John McGuire and secured endorsements like Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger. The DCCC's February addition of VA-05 to its 2026 Districts in Play underscores Democratic investment in this R+6 seat, amplified by pending legislative redistricting—a constitutional amendment on the April 21 ballot that bettors increasingly expect to pass, potentially shifting boundaries toward competitiveness. McGuire's February re-election bid faces a primary challenge from Chris Lucero ahead of the August 4 primaries, straining GOP resources amid no public polling yet.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$16,904終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 67.5% implied probability of victory in Virginia's 5th Congressional District, reflecting strong recruitment led by former Rep. Tom Perriello, who has dominated early fundraising at a three-to-one ratio over incumbent Rep. John McGuire and secured endorsements like Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger. The DCCC's February addition of VA-05 to its 2026 Districts in Play underscores Democratic investment in this R+6 seat, amplified by pending legislative redistricting—a constitutional amendment on the April 21 ballot that bettors increasingly expect to pass, potentially shifting boundaries toward competitiveness. McGuire's February re-election bid faces a primary challenge from Chris Lucero ahead of the August 4 primaries, straining GOP resources amid no public polling yet.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$16,904終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 67.5% implied probability of victory in Virginia's 5th Congressional District, reflecting strong recruitment led by former Rep. Tom Perriello, who has dominated early fundraising at a three-to-one ratio over incumbent Rep. John McGuire and secured endorsements like Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger. The DCCC's February addition of VA-05 to its 2026 Districts in Play underscores Democratic investment in this R+6 seat, amplified by pending legislative redistricting—a constitutional amendment on the April 21 ballot that bettors increasingly expect to pass, potentially shifting boundaries toward competitiveness. McGuire's February re-election bid faces a primary challenge from Chris Lucero ahead of the August 4 primaries, straining GOP resources amid no public polling yet.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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