South Dakota’s at-large congressional district has long favored Republican candidates, reflecting the state’s consistent partisan lean and voting patterns in federal races. With incumbent Dusty Johnson pursuing the governorship instead of reelection, the open seat has drawn a competitive Republican primary field led by Attorney General Marty Jackley, who holds a wide lead in recent polling ahead of the June 2 primary. Democrat Nikki Gronli secured her party’s nomination but confronts structural headwinds in a district rated solid or safe Republican by major forecasters. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical margins and the absence of recent developments that would narrow the gap, though an upset could still occur via an unusually strong Democratic performance, a major Republican primary surprise, or late-breaking events before the November general election.