Incumbent Democratic Rep. Gwen Moore secured her party's nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Tim Rogers in the November general election for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district. The seat's deep Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+26 and consistent performance in Milwaukee County and surrounding suburbs, underpins the market's overwhelming consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Moore's long tenure since 2005, combined with limited Republican fundraising and name recognition for the challenger, has kept the race rated Solid or Safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Trader positioning aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the margin before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$33,516 Vol.
$33,516 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
98%
共和党
2%
$33,516 Vol.
$33,516 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$12,352 Vol.
98%
共和党
$21,164 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Gwen Moore secured her party's nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Tim Rogers in the November general election for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district. The seat's deep Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+26 and consistent performance in Milwaukee County and surrounding suburbs, underpins the market's overwhelming consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Moore's long tenure since 2005, combined with limited Republican fundraising and name recognition for the challenger, has kept the race rated Solid or Safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Trader positioning aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$33,516終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Gwen Moore secured her party's nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Tim Rogers in the November general election for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district. The seat's deep Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+26 and consistent performance in Milwaukee County and surrounding suburbs, underpins the market's overwhelming consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Moore's long tenure since 2005, combined with limited Republican fundraising and name recognition for the challenger, has kept the race rated Solid or Safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Trader positioning aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$33,516終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Rep. Gwen Moore secured her party's nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Tim Rogers in the November general election for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district. The seat's deep Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+26 and consistent performance in Milwaukee County and surrounding suburbs, underpins the market's overwhelming consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Moore's long tenure since 2005, combined with limited Republican fundraising and name recognition for the challenger, has kept the race rated Solid or Safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Trader positioning aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the margin before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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