Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party in California's 15th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong D+26 partisan voting index—the 26th most Democratic nationwide—and incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin's commanding position after his 73% general election win in 2024. Following the March 6 filing deadline, the sole Republican candidate, Charles Hoelter, reports no fundraising, contrasting Mullin's $228,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, while Democratic challengers hold negligible resources. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic. The top-two primary on June 2 could advance two Democrats, sidelining the GOP, though a major scandal, weak Democratic nominee, or national Republican wave might challenge this outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$62,174 Vol.
$62,174 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
96%
共和党
3%
$62,174 Vol.
$62,174 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$51,898 Vol.
96%
共和党
$10,276 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party in California's 15th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong D+26 partisan voting index—the 26th most Democratic nationwide—and incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin's commanding position after his 73% general election win in 2024. Following the March 6 filing deadline, the sole Republican candidate, Charles Hoelter, reports no fundraising, contrasting Mullin's $228,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, while Democratic challengers hold negligible resources. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic. The top-two primary on June 2 could advance two Democrats, sidelining the GOP, though a major scandal, weak Democratic nominee, or national Republican wave might challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$62,174終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party in California's 15th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong D+26 partisan voting index—the 26th most Democratic nationwide—and incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin's commanding position after his 73% general election win in 2024. Following the March 6 filing deadline, the sole Republican candidate, Charles Hoelter, reports no fundraising, contrasting Mullin's $228,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, while Democratic challengers hold negligible resources. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic. The top-two primary on June 2 could advance two Democrats, sidelining the GOP, though a major scandal, weak Democratic nominee, or national Republican wave might challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$62,174終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party in California's 15th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong D+26 partisan voting index—the 26th most Democratic nationwide—and incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin's commanding position after his 73% general election win in 2024. Following the March 6 filing deadline, the sole Republican candidate, Charles Hoelter, reports no fundraising, contrasting Mullin's $228,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, while Democratic challengers hold negligible resources. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic. The top-two primary on June 2 could advance two Democrats, sidelining the GOP, though a major scandal, weak Democratic nominee, or national Republican wave might challenge this outlook.
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