Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding lead in the California 15th congressional district race due to the area's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index, and his decisive primary performance. Mullin captured roughly 65 percent of the June 2026 top-two primary vote against a fragmented Democratic field, while Republican Charles Hoelter advanced with about 18 percent. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with Mullin's 73 percent margin in 2024. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, including limited Republican fundraising and the absence of competitive polling. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or turnout shifts in the San Francisco Bay Peninsula could theoretically alter the outcome, though the district's partisan composition makes such reversals improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$122,454 Vol.
$122,454 Vol.
2026/11/02
ケビン・マリン（民主党）
96%
チャールズ・ヘルター（共和党）
<1%
$122,454 Vol.
$122,454 Vol.
2026/11/02
ケビン・マリン（民主党）
$94,144 Vol.
96%
チャールズ・ヘルター（共和党）
$28,310 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding lead in the California 15th congressional district race due to the area's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index, and his decisive primary performance. Mullin captured roughly 65 percent of the June 2026 top-two primary vote against a fragmented Democratic field, while Republican Charles Hoelter advanced with about 18 percent. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with Mullin's 73 percent margin in 2024. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, including limited Republican fundraising and the absence of competitive polling. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or turnout shifts in the San Francisco Bay Peninsula could theoretically alter the outcome, though the district's partisan composition makes such reversals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$122,454終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding lead in the California 15th congressional district race due to the area's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index, and his decisive primary performance. Mullin captured roughly 65 percent of the June 2026 top-two primary vote against a fragmented Democratic field, while Republican Charles Hoelter advanced with about 18 percent. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with Mullin's 73 percent margin in 2024. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, including limited Republican fundraising and the absence of competitive polling. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or turnout shifts in the San Francisco Bay Peninsula could theoretically alter the outcome, though the district's partisan composition makes such reversals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$122,454終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding lead in the California 15th congressional district race due to the area's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index, and his decisive primary performance. Mullin captured roughly 65 percent of the June 2026 top-two primary vote against a fragmented Democratic field, while Republican Charles Hoelter advanced with about 18 percent. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with Mullin's 73 percent margin in 2024. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, including limited Republican fundraising and the absence of competitive polling. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or turnout shifts in the San Francisco Bay Peninsula could theoretically alter the outcome, though the district's partisan composition makes such reversals improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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