U.S. midterm elections are constitutionally mandated under Article I, Section 4, requiring congressional elections every two years on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November—November 3, 2026, for the next cycle—absent extraordinary congressional action to alter the date. Traders' 90% implied probability on "Yes" reflects this entrenched precedent, upheld through crises like world wars, the Great Depression, and COVID-19 disruptions without postponement. No recent official announcements, legislative proposals, or executive orders suggest deviation, with the past 30 days showing zero substantive discussions on delays amid stable post-2024 transition planning. Tail risks such as severe national emergencies, cyber threats to election infrastructure, or constitutional crises could theoretically shift odds, but lack current evidence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$98,518 Vol.
$98,518 Vol.
はい
$98,518 Vol.
$98,518 Vol.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 15, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. midterm elections are constitutionally mandated under Article I, Section 4, requiring congressional elections every two years on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November—November 3, 2026, for the next cycle—absent extraordinary congressional action to alter the date. Traders' 90% implied probability on "Yes" reflects this entrenched precedent, upheld through crises like world wars, the Great Depression, and COVID-19 disruptions without postponement. No recent official announcements, legislative proposals, or executive orders suggest deviation, with the past 30 days showing zero substantive discussions on delays amid stable post-2024 transition planning. Tail risks such as severe national emergencies, cyber threats to election infrastructure, or constitutional crises could theoretically shift odds, but lack current evidence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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