Incumbent Republican Carlos Giménez holds a commanding lead in Florida's 28th Congressional District race, reflecting the district's strong Republican tilt shown by Donald Trump's 25-point 2024 margin and Giménez's prior 29-point victory. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, where Giménez faces Democrat Phil Ehr in a rematch. Fundraising data and cash-on-hand advantages favor the incumbent, while primaries for both parties were uncontested. The current trader consensus aligns with the district's partisan lean and historical results rather than indicating a close contest. Late developments such as a significant national shift, major scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.