Anthony Constantino holds an 80% implied probability in the NY-21 Republican primary, while Assemblyman Robert Smullen sits at 20%, reflecting trader consensus on the advantages of Constantino’s Trump endorsement and business profile against Smullen’s state party backing and legislative experience. The June 23 primary to succeed Elise Stefanik has featured debates and candidate profiles emphasizing Constantino’s manufacturing and economic development focus as a political outsider versus Smullen’s government service and military background. Recent reporting highlights the race’s insider-outsider tension, with Constantino’s endorsement providing a clear edge in a district where national Republican alignment often influences primary turnout and voter preference. No major late shifts have altered positioning ahead of the vote.