Incumbent Rep. Adam Smith (D), seeking reelection in Washington's solidly Democratic 9th Congressional District—a D+28 partisan lean seat spanning Seattle suburbs—drives trader consensus pricing Democrats at 92.5% to win. Smith's consistent landslide victories, including 69% in 2024 against a primary challenger, underscore the district's reliable blue performance amid strong Democratic turnout in King and Pierce counties. No competitive Republican has emerged ahead of the May 8 filing deadline, with the top-two primary set for August 4 and general election November 3. Upsets remain possible via Smith's late withdrawal, personal scandal, superior GOP candidate recruitment, or a national Republican midterm wave, though historical base rates for such safe seats favor continuity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 Vol.
93%
共和党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Adam Smith (D), seeking reelection in Washington's solidly Democratic 9th Congressional District—a D+28 partisan lean seat spanning Seattle suburbs—drives trader consensus pricing Democrats at 92.5% to win. Smith's consistent landslide victories, including 69% in 2024 against a primary challenger, underscore the district's reliable blue performance amid strong Democratic turnout in King and Pierce counties. No competitive Republican has emerged ahead of the May 8 filing deadline, with the top-two primary set for August 4 and general election November 3. Upsets remain possible via Smith's late withdrawal, personal scandal, superior GOP candidate recruitment, or a national Republican midterm wave, though historical base rates for such safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Adam Smith (D), seeking reelection in Washington's solidly Democratic 9th Congressional District—a D+28 partisan lean seat spanning Seattle suburbs—drives trader consensus pricing Democrats at 92.5% to win. Smith's consistent landslide victories, including 69% in 2024 against a primary challenger, underscore the district's reliable blue performance amid strong Democratic turnout in King and Pierce counties. No competitive Republican has emerged ahead of the May 8 filing deadline, with the top-two primary set for August 4 and general election November 3. Upsets remain possible via Smith's late withdrawal, personal scandal, superior GOP candidate recruitment, or a national Republican midterm wave, though historical base rates for such safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Adam Smith (D), seeking reelection in Washington's solidly Democratic 9th Congressional District—a D+28 partisan lean seat spanning Seattle suburbs—drives trader consensus pricing Democrats at 92.5% to win. Smith's consistent landslide victories, including 69% in 2024 against a primary challenger, underscore the district's reliable blue performance amid strong Democratic turnout in King and Pierce counties. No competitive Republican has emerged ahead of the May 8 filing deadline, with the top-two primary set for August 4 and general election November 3. Upsets remain possible via Smith's late withdrawal, personal scandal, superior GOP candidate recruitment, or a national Republican midterm wave, though historical base rates for such safe seats favor continuity.
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