Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote, setting up a rematch against Republican Monique DeSpain, who also advanced comfortably. The district, which covers parts of western and southern Oregon including Eugene and the coast, carries a consistent Democratic tilt reflected in Hoyle's 2024 general election margin and its Solid Democratic rating from the Cook Political Report. Traders' strong consensus for the Democratic nominee aligns with the incumbent's established position, limited recent polling shifts, and structural advantages in a low-turnout primary environment that has not produced notable vulnerabilities. A major national political realignment, significant scandal, or unexpected candidate withdrawal could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
91%
共和党
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$9,149 Vol.
91%
共和党
$92 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote, setting up a rematch against Republican Monique DeSpain, who also advanced comfortably. The district, which covers parts of western and southern Oregon including Eugene and the coast, carries a consistent Democratic tilt reflected in Hoyle's 2024 general election margin and its Solid Democratic rating from the Cook Political Report. Traders' strong consensus for the Democratic nominee aligns with the incumbent's established position, limited recent polling shifts, and structural advantages in a low-turnout primary environment that has not produced notable vulnerabilities. A major national political realignment, significant scandal, or unexpected candidate withdrawal could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$9,241終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote, setting up a rematch against Republican Monique DeSpain, who also advanced comfortably. The district, which covers parts of western and southern Oregon including Eugene and the coast, carries a consistent Democratic tilt reflected in Hoyle's 2024 general election margin and its Solid Democratic rating from the Cook Political Report. Traders' strong consensus for the Democratic nominee aligns with the incumbent's established position, limited recent polling shifts, and structural advantages in a low-turnout primary environment that has not produced notable vulnerabilities. A major national political realignment, significant scandal, or unexpected candidate withdrawal could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,241終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote, setting up a rematch against Republican Monique DeSpain, who also advanced comfortably. The district, which covers parts of western and southern Oregon including Eugene and the coast, carries a consistent Democratic tilt reflected in Hoyle's 2024 general election margin and its Solid Democratic rating from the Cook Political Report. Traders' strong consensus for the Democratic nominee aligns with the incumbent's established position, limited recent polling shifts, and structural advantages in a low-turnout primary environment that has not produced notable vulnerabilities. A major national political realignment, significant scandal, or unexpected candidate withdrawal could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問