Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive win in the March 3, 2026, Texas Republican primary—securing over 60% of the vote and avoiding a runoff despite multiple challengers—has solidified trader consensus at 84.5% for the Republican Party in the TX-31 House race. The district, rated Solidly Republican by the Cook Political Report and with no Democratic victories since its inception, favors the GOP nominee historically. Democrat Justin Early claimed his party's nomination unopposed, but faces steep barriers in this suburban Central Texas seat amid national midterm dynamics. Upcoming general election on November 3, 2026, with early polling absent, leaves room for shifts from fundraising, endorsements, or national trends, though incumbency and partisan lean maintain the lopsided odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
85%
民主党
14%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$4,986 Vol.
85%
民主党
$3,494 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive win in the March 3, 2026, Texas Republican primary—securing over 60% of the vote and avoiding a runoff despite multiple challengers—has solidified trader consensus at 84.5% for the Republican Party in the TX-31 House race. The district, rated Solidly Republican by the Cook Political Report and with no Democratic victories since its inception, favors the GOP nominee historically. Democrat Justin Early claimed his party's nomination unopposed, but faces steep barriers in this suburban Central Texas seat amid national midterm dynamics. Upcoming general election on November 3, 2026, with early polling absent, leaves room for shifts from fundraising, endorsements, or national trends, though incumbency and partisan lean maintain the lopsided odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$8,480終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive win in the March 3, 2026, Texas Republican primary—securing over 60% of the vote and avoiding a runoff despite multiple challengers—has solidified trader consensus at 84.5% for the Republican Party in the TX-31 House race. The district, rated Solidly Republican by the Cook Political Report and with no Democratic victories since its inception, favors the GOP nominee historically. Democrat Justin Early claimed his party's nomination unopposed, but faces steep barriers in this suburban Central Texas seat amid national midterm dynamics. Upcoming general election on November 3, 2026, with early polling absent, leaves room for shifts from fundraising, endorsements, or national trends, though incumbency and partisan lean maintain the lopsided odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$8,480終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive win in the March 3, 2026, Texas Republican primary—securing over 60% of the vote and avoiding a runoff despite multiple challengers—has solidified trader consensus at 84.5% for the Republican Party in the TX-31 House race. The district, rated Solidly Republican by the Cook Political Report and with no Democratic victories since its inception, favors the GOP nominee historically. Democrat Justin Early claimed his party's nomination unopposed, but faces steep barriers in this suburban Central Texas seat amid national midterm dynamics. Upcoming general election on November 3, 2026, with early polling absent, leaves room for shifts from fundraising, endorsements, or national trends, though incumbency and partisan lean maintain the lopsided odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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