Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive 60% win in the March 3 Republican primary, avoiding a runoff, has solidified GOP dominance in the safely Republican TX-31 district, rated Solid R by Cook Political Report with an R+11 partisan lean. Facing Democratic nominee Justin Early, traders price Republicans at 84.5% implied probability, reflecting Carter's fundraising edge, historical double-digit victory margins, and the district's suburban Central Texas base encompassing Round Rock, Temple, and Killeen. No general election polls show competitiveness, and post-primary developments through mid-May remain stable, with no scandals or national midterm shifts yet impacting sentiment ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$13,946 Vol.
$13,946 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
84%
民主党
16%
$13,946 Vol.
$13,946 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$8,720 Vol.
84%
民主党
$5,226 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive 60% win in the March 3 Republican primary, avoiding a runoff, has solidified GOP dominance in the safely Republican TX-31 district, rated Solid R by Cook Political Report with an R+11 partisan lean. Facing Democratic nominee Justin Early, traders price Republicans at 84.5% implied probability, reflecting Carter's fundraising edge, historical double-digit victory margins, and the district's suburban Central Texas base encompassing Round Rock, Temple, and Killeen. No general election polls show competitiveness, and post-primary developments through mid-May remain stable, with no scandals or national midterm shifts yet impacting sentiment ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$13,946終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive 60% win in the March 3 Republican primary, avoiding a runoff, has solidified GOP dominance in the safely Republican TX-31 district, rated Solid R by Cook Political Report with an R+11 partisan lean. Facing Democratic nominee Justin Early, traders price Republicans at 84.5% implied probability, reflecting Carter's fundraising edge, historical double-digit victory margins, and the district's suburban Central Texas base encompassing Round Rock, Temple, and Killeen. No general election polls show competitiveness, and post-primary developments through mid-May remain stable, with no scandals or national midterm shifts yet impacting sentiment ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$13,946終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive 60% win in the March 3 Republican primary, avoiding a runoff, has solidified GOP dominance in the safely Republican TX-31 district, rated Solid R by Cook Political Report with an R+11 partisan lean. Facing Democratic nominee Justin Early, traders price Republicans at 84.5% implied probability, reflecting Carter's fundraising edge, historical double-digit victory margins, and the district's suburban Central Texas base encompassing Round Rock, Temple, and Killeen. No general election polls show competitiveness, and post-primary developments through mid-May remain stable, with no scandals or national midterm shifts yet impacting sentiment ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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