Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan holds Massachusetts’ 3rd congressional district, which carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+11 and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election, with no Republican candidate positioned to mount a competitive challenge. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because structural factors—voter registration advantages, fundraising gaps, and the absence of a credible GOP contender—have historically produced lopsided results in similar districts. A late primary upset or major national political realignment could theoretically narrow the margin, but such outcomes remain remote given the district’s established partisan baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,938 Vol.
$15,938 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$15,938 Vol.
$15,938 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$7,144 Vol.
94%
共和党
$8,794 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan holds Massachusetts’ 3rd congressional district, which carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+11 and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election, with no Republican candidate positioned to mount a competitive challenge. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because structural factors—voter registration advantages, fundraising gaps, and the absence of a credible GOP contender—have historically produced lopsided results in similar districts. A late primary upset or major national political realignment could theoretically narrow the margin, but such outcomes remain remote given the district’s established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$15,938終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan holds Massachusetts’ 3rd congressional district, which carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+11 and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election, with no Republican candidate positioned to mount a competitive challenge. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because structural factors—voter registration advantages, fundraising gaps, and the absence of a credible GOP contender—have historically produced lopsided results in similar districts. A late primary upset or major national political realignment could theoretically narrow the margin, but such outcomes remain remote given the district’s established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,938終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan holds Massachusetts’ 3rd congressional district, which carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+11 and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election, with no Republican candidate positioned to mount a competitive challenge. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because structural factors—voter registration advantages, fundraising gaps, and the absence of a credible GOP contender—have historically produced lopsided results in similar districts. A late primary upset or major national political realignment could theoretically narrow the margin, but such outcomes remain remote given the district’s established partisan baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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