Trever Nehls, identical twin brother of retiring Rep. Troy Nehls, secured the Republican nomination in the March 3, 2026, TX-22 primary with a 76% landslide, solidifying trader consensus at 87% implied probability for a GOP House win in this open seat. The district's R+9 Cook PVI and history of double-digit Republican margins—most recently Troy Nehls' 62-38% victory over Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott in 2024—underpin the lopsided odds, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Republican and Sabato's Crystal Ball deeming it Safe Republican. No public polls have emerged post-primaries, but Nehls holds a fundraising edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
87%
民主党
13%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$0 Vol.
87%
民主党
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trever Nehls, identical twin brother of retiring Rep. Troy Nehls, secured the Republican nomination in the March 3, 2026, TX-22 primary with a 76% landslide, solidifying trader consensus at 87% implied probability for a GOP House win in this open seat. The district's R+9 Cook PVI and history of double-digit Republican margins—most recently Troy Nehls' 62-38% victory over Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott in 2024—underpin the lopsided odds, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Republican and Sabato's Crystal Ball deeming it Safe Republican. No public polls have emerged post-primaries, but Nehls holds a fundraising edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trever Nehls, identical twin brother of retiring Rep. Troy Nehls, secured the Republican nomination in the March 3, 2026, TX-22 primary with a 76% landslide, solidifying trader consensus at 87% implied probability for a GOP House win in this open seat. The district's R+9 Cook PVI and history of double-digit Republican margins—most recently Troy Nehls' 62-38% victory over Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott in 2024—underpin the lopsided odds, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Republican and Sabato's Crystal Ball deeming it Safe Republican. No public polls have emerged post-primaries, but Nehls holds a fundraising edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trever Nehls, identical twin brother of retiring Rep. Troy Nehls, secured the Republican nomination in the March 3, 2026, TX-22 primary with a 76% landslide, solidifying trader consensus at 87% implied probability for a GOP House win in this open seat. The district's R+9 Cook PVI and history of double-digit Republican margins—most recently Troy Nehls' 62-38% victory over Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott in 2024—underpin the lopsided odds, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Republican and Sabato's Crystal Ball deeming it Safe Republican. No public polls have emerged post-primaries, but Nehls holds a fundraising edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問