Incumbent Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D) drives trader consensus at 93.5% for Democratic Party victory in California's safely Democratic 19th Congressional District (D+18 Cook PVI), bolstered by his $4.6 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025—dwarfing challengers—and consistent 68-70% general election margins in 2022 and 2024. The March 26 certified candidate list confirms minimal Republican opposition from Tuka Gafari and Peter Verbica, both underfunded, in the June 2 top-two primary. This structural edge in the Central Coast district leaves slim paths for Republicans, such as a Democratic primary upset sidelining Panetta or a national anti-incumbent midterm wave, though historical precedents favor incumbents in safe seats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$3,639 Vol.
94%
共和党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D) drives trader consensus at 93.5% for Democratic Party victory in California's safely Democratic 19th Congressional District (D+18 Cook PVI), bolstered by his $4.6 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025—dwarfing challengers—and consistent 68-70% general election margins in 2022 and 2024. The March 26 certified candidate list confirms minimal Republican opposition from Tuka Gafari and Peter Verbica, both underfunded, in the June 2 top-two primary. This structural edge in the Central Coast district leaves slim paths for Republicans, such as a Democratic primary upset sidelining Panetta or a national anti-incumbent midterm wave, though historical precedents favor incumbents in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$3,639終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D) drives trader consensus at 93.5% for Democratic Party victory in California's safely Democratic 19th Congressional District (D+18 Cook PVI), bolstered by his $4.6 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025—dwarfing challengers—and consistent 68-70% general election margins in 2022 and 2024. The March 26 certified candidate list confirms minimal Republican opposition from Tuka Gafari and Peter Verbica, both underfunded, in the June 2 top-two primary. This structural edge in the Central Coast district leaves slim paths for Republicans, such as a Democratic primary upset sidelining Panetta or a national anti-incumbent midterm wave, though historical precedents favor incumbents in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$3,639終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D) drives trader consensus at 93.5% for Democratic Party victory in California's safely Democratic 19th Congressional District (D+18 Cook PVI), bolstered by his $4.6 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025—dwarfing challengers—and consistent 68-70% general election margins in 2022 and 2024. The March 26 certified candidate list confirms minimal Republican opposition from Tuka Gafari and Peter Verbica, both underfunded, in the June 2 top-two primary. This structural edge in the Central Coast district leaves slim paths for Republicans, such as a Democratic primary upset sidelining Panetta or a national anti-incumbent midterm wave, though historical precedents favor incumbents in safe seats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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