The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.5%. Incumbent Representative Lou Correa faces a June 2 top-two primary against several Democratic challengers and Republican David Pan, with forecasters rating the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic based on voter registration patterns and Orange County demographics. This positioning has held steady through the filing deadline and early campaign filings. A Republican upset would require an unexpected primary consolidation against Correa or a major turnout surge in the general election, though historical base rates for such shifts in comparable districts remain low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$11,084 Vol.
$11,084 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
$11,084 Vol.
$11,084 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$2,449 Vol.
93%
共和党
$8,635 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.5%. Incumbent Representative Lou Correa faces a June 2 top-two primary against several Democratic challengers and Republican David Pan, with forecasters rating the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic based on voter registration patterns and Orange County demographics. This positioning has held steady through the filing deadline and early campaign filings. A Republican upset would require an unexpected primary consolidation against Correa or a major turnout surge in the general election, though historical base rates for such shifts in comparable districts remain low.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$11,084終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.5%. Incumbent Representative Lou Correa faces a June 2 top-two primary against several Democratic challengers and Republican David Pan, with forecasters rating the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic based on voter registration patterns and Orange County demographics. This positioning has held steady through the filing deadline and early campaign filings. A Republican upset would require an unexpected primary consolidation against Correa or a major turnout surge in the general election, though historical base rates for such shifts in comparable districts remain low.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$11,084終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.5%. Incumbent Representative Lou Correa faces a June 2 top-two primary against several Democratic challengers and Republican David Pan, with forecasters rating the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic based on voter registration patterns and Orange County demographics. This positioning has held steady through the filing deadline and early campaign filings. A Republican upset would require an unexpected primary consolidation against Correa or a major turnout surge in the general election, though historical base rates for such shifts in comparable districts remain low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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