Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party in CA-46 due to incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's entrenched position in a district with Cook PVI D+11, encompassing urban Orange County areas like Santa Ana and Anaheim with strong Latino voter blocs. Correa's consistent general election margins exceeding 60%—including a 63%-37% win over David Pan in 2024—combined with his fundraising dominance ($2.4 million cash on hand per recent FEC filings) dwarfs challengers ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where he faces three lesser-funded Democrats and Pan again. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook and others reinforce this stability. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, late scandal, health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave, though barriers remain high.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$0 Vol.
93%
共和党
$7,207 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party in CA-46 due to incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's entrenched position in a district with Cook PVI D+11, encompassing urban Orange County areas like Santa Ana and Anaheim with strong Latino voter blocs. Correa's consistent general election margins exceeding 60%—including a 63%-37% win over David Pan in 2024—combined with his fundraising dominance ($2.4 million cash on hand per recent FEC filings) dwarfs challengers ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where he faces three lesser-funded Democrats and Pan again. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook and others reinforce this stability. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, late scandal, health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$7,207終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party in CA-46 due to incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's entrenched position in a district with Cook PVI D+11, encompassing urban Orange County areas like Santa Ana and Anaheim with strong Latino voter blocs. Correa's consistent general election margins exceeding 60%—including a 63%-37% win over David Pan in 2024—combined with his fundraising dominance ($2.4 million cash on hand per recent FEC filings) dwarfs challengers ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where he faces three lesser-funded Democrats and Pan again. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook and others reinforce this stability. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, late scandal, health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$7,207終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party in CA-46 due to incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's entrenched position in a district with Cook PVI D+11, encompassing urban Orange County areas like Santa Ana and Anaheim with strong Latino voter blocs. Correa's consistent general election margins exceeding 60%—including a 63%-37% win over David Pan in 2024—combined with his fundraising dominance ($2.4 million cash on hand per recent FEC filings) dwarfs challengers ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where he faces three lesser-funded Democrats and Pan again. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook and others reinforce this stability. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, late scandal, health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave, though barriers remain high.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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