Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's dominant position in California's 16th Congressional District, a Silicon Valley seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25, anchors trader consensus heavily favoring Democratic retention ahead of the June 2 top-two primary and November 3 general election. Liccardo, who won 58% in 2024, boasts nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing challengers including Republicans Kevin Johnson and Peter Soule, whose filings were certified last week after the March 6 deadline. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent blue performance. Upsets would require a Liccardo scandal, health issue, or improbable GOP surge in the primary, though historical base rates in D+25 districts show negligible Republican success.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$14,277 Vol.
$14,277 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
$14,277 Vol.
$14,277 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$10,434 Vol.
93%
共和党
$3,844 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's dominant position in California's 16th Congressional District, a Silicon Valley seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25, anchors trader consensus heavily favoring Democratic retention ahead of the June 2 top-two primary and November 3 general election. Liccardo, who won 58% in 2024, boasts nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing challengers including Republicans Kevin Johnson and Peter Soule, whose filings were certified last week after the March 6 deadline. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent blue performance. Upsets would require a Liccardo scandal, health issue, or improbable GOP surge in the primary, though historical base rates in D+25 districts show negligible Republican success.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$14,277終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's dominant position in California's 16th Congressional District, a Silicon Valley seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25, anchors trader consensus heavily favoring Democratic retention ahead of the June 2 top-two primary and November 3 general election. Liccardo, who won 58% in 2024, boasts nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing challengers including Republicans Kevin Johnson and Peter Soule, whose filings were certified last week after the March 6 deadline. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent blue performance. Upsets would require a Liccardo scandal, health issue, or improbable GOP surge in the primary, though historical base rates in D+25 districts show negligible Republican success.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$14,277終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's dominant position in California's 16th Congressional District, a Silicon Valley seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25, anchors trader consensus heavily favoring Democratic retention ahead of the June 2 top-two primary and November 3 general election. Liccardo, who won 58% in 2024, boasts nearly $2 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing challengers including Republicans Kevin Johnson and Peter Soule, whose filings were certified last week after the March 6 deadline. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent blue performance. Upsets would require a Liccardo scandal, health issue, or improbable GOP surge in the primary, though historical base rates in D+25 districts show negligible Republican success.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問