Incumbent Republican Rep. Jay Obernolte's bid for re-election in California's 23rd Congressional District drives the 85.5% trader consensus for a GOP win, bolstered by the district's Safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, which preserved its partisan lean. Obernolte's recent ascension to House Republican Policy Committee chair enhances his fundraising and visibility, with over $1.5 million raised. A fragmented Democratic field—including Tessa Lynn Hodge, Paul Chakalian, and others—risks vote-splitting in the June 2 top-two primary, potentially advancing two Republicans to November's general election. Absent polling shifts or scandals, historical incumbency advantages and national midterm dynamics sustain high GOP probabilities ahead of the contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
86%
民主党
14%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$7,190 Vol.
86%
民主党
$2,591 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Jay Obernolte's bid for re-election in California's 23rd Congressional District drives the 85.5% trader consensus for a GOP win, bolstered by the district's Safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, which preserved its partisan lean. Obernolte's recent ascension to House Republican Policy Committee chair enhances his fundraising and visibility, with over $1.5 million raised. A fragmented Democratic field—including Tessa Lynn Hodge, Paul Chakalian, and others—risks vote-splitting in the June 2 top-two primary, potentially advancing two Republicans to November's general election. Absent polling shifts or scandals, historical incumbency advantages and national midterm dynamics sustain high GOP probabilities ahead of the contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$9,781終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Jay Obernolte's bid for re-election in California's 23rd Congressional District drives the 85.5% trader consensus for a GOP win, bolstered by the district's Safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, which preserved its partisan lean. Obernolte's recent ascension to House Republican Policy Committee chair enhances his fundraising and visibility, with over $1.5 million raised. A fragmented Democratic field—including Tessa Lynn Hodge, Paul Chakalian, and others—risks vote-splitting in the June 2 top-two primary, potentially advancing two Republicans to November's general election. Absent polling shifts or scandals, historical incumbency advantages and national midterm dynamics sustain high GOP probabilities ahead of the contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,781終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Jay Obernolte's bid for re-election in California's 23rd Congressional District drives the 85.5% trader consensus for a GOP win, bolstered by the district's Safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, which preserved its partisan lean. Obernolte's recent ascension to House Republican Policy Committee chair enhances his fundraising and visibility, with over $1.5 million raised. A fragmented Democratic field—including Tessa Lynn Hodge, Paul Chakalian, and others—risks vote-splitting in the June 2 top-two primary, potentially advancing two Republicans to November's general election. Absent polling shifts or scandals, historical incumbency advantages and national midterm dynamics sustain high GOP probabilities ahead of the contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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