Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte's commanding position drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at 85.5% implied probability to win California's 23rd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Obernolte's 60%+ margins in 2022 and 2024 generals. Trump carried the district 58%-39% in 2024, underscoring its safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. As the June 2 top-two primary nears, Obernolte's $1.45 million cash-on-hand vastly outpaces Democratic challengers Tessa Lynn Hodge, Karsten Nicholson, and Pat Wallis, positioning him to advance unchallenged. No recent polling or catalysts have shifted odds, with stable pricing signaling low upset risk barring a national Democratic surge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
86%
民主党
14%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$7,190 Vol.
86%
民主党
$2,591 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte's commanding position drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at 85.5% implied probability to win California's 23rd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Obernolte's 60%+ margins in 2022 and 2024 generals. Trump carried the district 58%-39% in 2024, underscoring its safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. As the June 2 top-two primary nears, Obernolte's $1.45 million cash-on-hand vastly outpaces Democratic challengers Tessa Lynn Hodge, Karsten Nicholson, and Pat Wallis, positioning him to advance unchallenged. No recent polling or catalysts have shifted odds, with stable pricing signaling low upset risk barring a national Democratic surge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$9,781終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte's commanding position drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at 85.5% implied probability to win California's 23rd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Obernolte's 60%+ margins in 2022 and 2024 generals. Trump carried the district 58%-39% in 2024, underscoring its safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. As the June 2 top-two primary nears, Obernolte's $1.45 million cash-on-hand vastly outpaces Democratic challengers Tessa Lynn Hodge, Karsten Nicholson, and Pat Wallis, positioning him to advance unchallenged. No recent polling or catalysts have shifted odds, with stable pricing signaling low upset risk barring a national Democratic surge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,781終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte's commanding position drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at 85.5% implied probability to win California's 23rd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Obernolte's 60%+ margins in 2022 and 2024 generals. Trump carried the district 58%-39% in 2024, underscoring its safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. As the June 2 top-two primary nears, Obernolte's $1.45 million cash-on-hand vastly outpaces Democratic challengers Tessa Lynn Hodge, Karsten Nicholson, and Pat Wallis, positioning him to advance unchallenged. No recent polling or catalysts have shifted odds, with stable pricing signaling low upset risk barring a national Democratic surge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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