The open seat in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District, created by longtime Republican incumbent Mark Amodei’s February 2026 retirement announcement, has drawn a crowded GOP primary featuring 13 candidates while Democrats field eight contenders for the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s R+7 Partisan Voter Index and a three-to-two Republican registration advantage. Traders assign the Republican Party a 66% implied probability of victory, consistent with the absence of general-election polling showing a competitive race and the seat’s history of Republican control. Democrats view the vacancy as their best recent opening in the district but face structural barriers that keep their implied probability at 22.5%. The June 9 primaries remain the next scheduled events that could shift positioning ahead of the general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$18,115 Vol.
$18,115 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
66%
民主党
23%
$18,115 Vol.
$18,115 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$11,268 Vol.
66%
民主党
$6,848 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District, created by longtime Republican incumbent Mark Amodei’s February 2026 retirement announcement, has drawn a crowded GOP primary featuring 13 candidates while Democrats field eight contenders for the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s R+7 Partisan Voter Index and a three-to-two Republican registration advantage. Traders assign the Republican Party a 66% implied probability of victory, consistent with the absence of general-election polling showing a competitive race and the seat’s history of Republican control. Democrats view the vacancy as their best recent opening in the district but face structural barriers that keep their implied probability at 22.5%. The June 9 primaries remain the next scheduled events that could shift positioning ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$18,115終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District, created by longtime Republican incumbent Mark Amodei’s February 2026 retirement announcement, has drawn a crowded GOP primary featuring 13 candidates while Democrats field eight contenders for the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s R+7 Partisan Voter Index and a three-to-two Republican registration advantage. Traders assign the Republican Party a 66% implied probability of victory, consistent with the absence of general-election polling showing a competitive race and the seat’s history of Republican control. Democrats view the vacancy as their best recent opening in the district but face structural barriers that keep their implied probability at 22.5%. The June 9 primaries remain the next scheduled events that could shift positioning ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$18,115終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District, created by longtime Republican incumbent Mark Amodei’s February 2026 retirement announcement, has drawn a crowded GOP primary featuring 13 candidates while Democrats field eight contenders for the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s R+7 Partisan Voter Index and a three-to-two Republican registration advantage. Traders assign the Republican Party a 66% implied probability of victory, consistent with the absence of general-election polling showing a competitive race and the seat’s history of Republican control. Democrats view the vacancy as their best recent opening in the district but face structural barriers that keep their implied probability at 22.5%. The June 9 primaries remain the next scheduled events that could shift positioning ahead of the general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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