**Republican David Flippo holds a clear edge in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District race, an open seat previously held by retiring Rep. Mark Amodei.** The district’s strong Republican lean—reflected in Trump’s 14-point margin there in 2024 and a sizable GOP voter registration advantage—anchors trader pricing near 72.5% for Flippo. He secured the nomination with President Trump’s endorsement after a crowded primary. Recent developments have tightened the contest. Allegations that Flippo exaggerated his military record and lacks deep local roots, combined with his absence from recent debates, have drawn criticism and boosted Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson’s profile. The DCCC added her to its Red to Blue program, and polls show a narrower gap than the district’s fundamentals suggest, with some surveys nearly tied. Republican super PACs have responded with heavy ad spending. Forecasters still rate the race Likely Republican, consistent with the market’s implied probability, though the outcome remains sensitive to turnout and any late shifts in candidate perception ahead of the November 3 general election.