Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-03 into a Solid Democratic district per Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings, with Kamala Harris carrying it 53%-43% in 2024—driving trader consensus to 85.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party winner. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera, relocating from CA-06, leads fundraising with $1.9 million cash-on-hand as of March 31, dwarfing Republican challengers Christine Bish, Laura Koscki, and Robb Tucker (each under $120,000 raised). The June 2 top-two primary favors Democrats advancing both finalists amid a crowded field of four Democrats versus three Republicans, sidelining GOP prospects despite former Rep. Kevin Kiley's unrelated independent bid elsewhere; late scandals or turnout surges could narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,113 Vol.
$25,113 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
86%
共和党
8%
$25,113 Vol.
$25,113 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$13,178 Vol.
86%
共和党
$11,935 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-03 into a Solid Democratic district per Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings, with Kamala Harris carrying it 53%-43% in 2024—driving trader consensus to 85.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party winner. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera, relocating from CA-06, leads fundraising with $1.9 million cash-on-hand as of March 31, dwarfing Republican challengers Christine Bish, Laura Koscki, and Robb Tucker (each under $120,000 raised). The June 2 top-two primary favors Democrats advancing both finalists amid a crowded field of four Democrats versus three Republicans, sidelining GOP prospects despite former Rep. Kevin Kiley's unrelated independent bid elsewhere; late scandals or turnout surges could narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$25,113終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-03 into a Solid Democratic district per Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings, with Kamala Harris carrying it 53%-43% in 2024—driving trader consensus to 85.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party winner. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera, relocating from CA-06, leads fundraising with $1.9 million cash-on-hand as of March 31, dwarfing Republican challengers Christine Bish, Laura Koscki, and Robb Tucker (each under $120,000 raised). The June 2 top-two primary favors Democrats advancing both finalists amid a crowded field of four Democrats versus three Republicans, sidelining GOP prospects despite former Rep. Kevin Kiley's unrelated independent bid elsewhere; late scandals or turnout surges could narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,113終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-03 into a Solid Democratic district per Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings, with Kamala Harris carrying it 53%-43% in 2024—driving trader consensus to 85.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party winner. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera, relocating from CA-06, leads fundraising with $1.9 million cash-on-hand as of March 31, dwarfing Republican challengers Christine Bish, Laura Koscki, and Robb Tucker (each under $120,000 raised). The June 2 top-two primary favors Democrats advancing both finalists amid a crowded field of four Democrats versus three Republicans, sidelining GOP prospects despite former Rep. Kevin Kiley's unrelated independent bid elsewhere; late scandals or turnout surges could narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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