House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's decision to seek re-election in Louisiana's solidly Republican 1st Congressional District drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Republican winner, reflecting the district's strong GOP leanings as rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report and Scalise's unchallenged incumbency advantage after qualifying in February 2026. With no notable Republican primary challengers ahead of the May 16 party primary and a modest Democratic field headlined by educator Lauren Jewett—who announced her bid last fall—the race appears firmly in GOP hands absent a national midterm wave. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected Scalise retirement, primary upset, major scandal, or health developments, though historical patterns favor the incumbent in this safe seat.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$10,033 Vol.
$10,033 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$10,033 Vol.
$10,033 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$10,033 Vol.
93%
民主党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's decision to seek re-election in Louisiana's solidly Republican 1st Congressional District drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Republican winner, reflecting the district's strong GOP leanings as rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report and Scalise's unchallenged incumbency advantage after qualifying in February 2026. With no notable Republican primary challengers ahead of the May 16 party primary and a modest Democratic field headlined by educator Lauren Jewett—who announced her bid last fall—the race appears firmly in GOP hands absent a national midterm wave. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected Scalise retirement, primary upset, major scandal, or health developments, though historical patterns favor the incumbent in this safe seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$10,033終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's decision to seek re-election in Louisiana's solidly Republican 1st Congressional District drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Republican winner, reflecting the district's strong GOP leanings as rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report and Scalise's unchallenged incumbency advantage after qualifying in February 2026. With no notable Republican primary challengers ahead of the May 16 party primary and a modest Democratic field headlined by educator Lauren Jewett—who announced her bid last fall—the race appears firmly in GOP hands absent a national midterm wave. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected Scalise retirement, primary upset, major scandal, or health developments, though historical patterns favor the incumbent in this safe seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$10,033終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's decision to seek re-election in Louisiana's solidly Republican 1st Congressional District drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Republican winner, reflecting the district's strong GOP leanings as rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report and Scalise's unchallenged incumbency advantage after qualifying in February 2026. With no notable Republican primary challengers ahead of the May 16 party primary and a modest Democratic field headlined by educator Lauren Jewett—who announced her bid last fall—the race appears firmly in GOP hands absent a national midterm wave. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected Scalise retirement, primary upset, major scandal, or health developments, though historical patterns favor the incumbent in this safe seat.
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