The Illinois 4th congressional district’s D+17 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin the 95.2% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement cleared the path for his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, who secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition in March 2026. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s large Latino population centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs. With the general election set for November 3, a sustained national Republican surge, an unforeseen scandal involving the nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout remain the principal factors that could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such shifts are rare in this environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$51,474 Vol.
$51,474 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
$51,474 Vol.
$51,474 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$36,829 Vol.
95%
共和党
$14,645 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s D+17 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin the 95.2% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement cleared the path for his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, who secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition in March 2026. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s large Latino population centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs. With the general election set for November 3, a sustained national Republican surge, an unforeseen scandal involving the nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout remain the principal factors that could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such shifts are rare in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$51,474終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s D+17 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin the 95.2% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement cleared the path for his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, who secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition in March 2026. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s large Latino population centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs. With the general election set for November 3, a sustained national Republican surge, an unforeseen scandal involving the nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout remain the principal factors that could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such shifts are rare in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$51,474終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 4th congressional district’s D+17 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin the 95.2% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement cleared the path for his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, who secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition in March 2026. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s large Latino population centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs. With the general election set for November 3, a sustained national Republican surge, an unforeseen scandal involving the nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout remain the principal factors that could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such shifts are rare in this environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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