The March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primary solidified Patty García, chief of staff to retiring incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García, as the party's nominee for the open IL-04 seat after running unopposed amid controversy over the incumbent's late withdrawal post-filing deadline. This district, with a D+17 partisan voter index encompassing Chicago's southwest side and suburbs like Cicero, has delivered Democratic general election margins of 67-84% in recent cycles, earning Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Trader consensus reflects these historical base rates and García's endorsements from labor unions and state leaders. Realistic challenges include independents like Byron Sigcho-Lopez and Mayra Macías siphoning progressive votes, a GOP surge by nominee Lupe Castillo, or scandals before the November 3 general election, though structural advantages favor Democrats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$17,589 Vol.
$17,589 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
93%
共和党
5%
$17,589 Vol.
$17,589 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$17,589 Vol.
93%
共和党
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primary solidified Patty García, chief of staff to retiring incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García, as the party's nominee for the open IL-04 seat after running unopposed amid controversy over the incumbent's late withdrawal post-filing deadline. This district, with a D+17 partisan voter index encompassing Chicago's southwest side and suburbs like Cicero, has delivered Democratic general election margins of 67-84% in recent cycles, earning Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Trader consensus reflects these historical base rates and García's endorsements from labor unions and state leaders. Realistic challenges include independents like Byron Sigcho-Lopez and Mayra Macías siphoning progressive votes, a GOP surge by nominee Lupe Castillo, or scandals before the November 3 general election, though structural advantages favor Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$17,589終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primary solidified Patty García, chief of staff to retiring incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García, as the party's nominee for the open IL-04 seat after running unopposed amid controversy over the incumbent's late withdrawal post-filing deadline. This district, with a D+17 partisan voter index encompassing Chicago's southwest side and suburbs like Cicero, has delivered Democratic general election margins of 67-84% in recent cycles, earning Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Trader consensus reflects these historical base rates and García's endorsements from labor unions and state leaders. Realistic challenges include independents like Byron Sigcho-Lopez and Mayra Macías siphoning progressive votes, a GOP surge by nominee Lupe Castillo, or scandals before the November 3 general election, though structural advantages favor Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$17,589終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primary solidified Patty García, chief of staff to retiring incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García, as the party's nominee for the open IL-04 seat after running unopposed amid controversy over the incumbent's late withdrawal post-filing deadline. This district, with a D+17 partisan voter index encompassing Chicago's southwest side and suburbs like Cicero, has delivered Democratic general election margins of 67-84% in recent cycles, earning Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Trader consensus reflects these historical base rates and García's endorsements from labor unions and state leaders. Realistic challenges include independents like Byron Sigcho-Lopez and Mayra Macías siphoning progressive votes, a GOP surge by nominee Lupe Castillo, or scandals before the November 3 general election, though structural advantages favor Democrats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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